It is time for the European Union to solve the Urban problem

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Rola Khaleda, FT editor, chooses her favorite stories in this weekly newsletter.

The writer is the administrative director of Europe in the Eurasia Group

The European Union suffers from the problem of Victor Urban. For many years, it has been controlled. Now he is threatened with life.

US President Donald Trump’s strategic goal of normalizing relations with Russia and turning its focus to China and India from the Pacific Ocean means disengagement from Europe-definitely from Ukraine, and perhaps from NATO. This will destabilize the European Union. This may be something that this American administration can accept; It may be its goal.

However, senior European Union officials view the Ukraine war as existential. They argue that there is no reason to believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is now able to Tram, will stop in Ukraine if he succeeds there. French President Emmanuel Macron and Sir Kerr Starmer, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, can contain the aspirations of Putin, and worked in partnership with the United States. However, the truth is that the United States is unlikely to provide the guarantees that Europeans need to deploy the forces and secure a permanent peace. The result is likely, in the end, is the ongoing war. In these circumstances, Europe will have no choice but to support and arm of Ukraine.

The European Union’s ability to do this was exposed directly by Urban, which was greatly encouraged by Trump’s return. The Hungarian Prime Minister in Lockstep continues with Trump and Putin in the hope of winning both.

At the European Union leaders’ gathering on March 6, Urban transferred the veto on the summit conclusions on Ukraine. This forced this 26 leaders to adopt a separate statement, and deal with a symbolic blow to the European Union.

There are many concrete methods that can undermine the European support for Kyiv. The economic sanctions of the European Union against Russia must be renewed every six months, with the next decision in July. This requires consensus, and hand over the veto. If Europe decides to seize Russia’s frozen assets in Europe, at a value of about 200 billion euros, Urban will also need an agreement. Senior European officials have developed a set of options to overcome his ban, but this will take a long time for the engineer and implementation.

Urban also has a huge level of joining the European Union in Ukraine. Each step, except for the initial examination process that compares local laws in Ukraine to the European Union Community AgreementIt is subject to consensus. However, the European Union does not need to surrender to blackmail Urban. There are many cranes that you can withdraw. Looking at the new geopolitical reality, it is recommended to do so.

The easiest lever for clouds is criticism. The European Union allocated 44.4 billion euros for Hungary in its budget 2021-27, of which 21.4 billion euros. This is the money needs Urban.

The Hungarian economy was almost stagnant in 2024. The inflation has also increased since last September, when it reached 5.7 percent annually in February, a number that includes an increase in sensitive food prices for voters of 7.1 percent.

The rise of Peter Magear, from an unknown figure in January last year, was shaken to lead the Tesza party to second in the European parliamentary elections, with nearly 30 percent of the country’s vote in June, Urban’s sense of higher security. Worse for him, he continued to support the former Fidesz Insider ascending.

Desperate support for support, Orbán has announced tax cuts on stages of mothers and value -added relief on the main food items for retirees. However, these measures will guarantee a budget deficit this year about 4.6 percent of GDP, compared to 3.7 percent, threatening the market credibility of Hungary.

Consequently, European Union funds are crucial if Urban enhances the investor’s confidence in the country’s economy. The European Commission has influence and should be used.

European officials are considering reusing about 30 billion euros in the cohesion funds that are not used for European defense. Orbán wants to make sure that this will not be subject to the same strict policewoman, which has been banned at a value of 17.5 billion euros in the cohesion boxes and grants from the recovery and flexibility facility in the European Union so far. But since the policewoman applies to all the money that is paid from the budget of the European Union or its guarantee, the new committee facility worth 150 billion euros for defense may also not be accessible to Urban.

The European Union has a more Dicaconia weapon. If 22 member states and the European Parliament find Hungary in a dangerous violation of the rule of law, then, after a series of steps that involve the consensus between the remaining 26 member states, they can ultimately suspend vote rights for Hungary by the qualified majority.

The European Union is now facing a Darwinian moment. It will adapt or die. To protect Ukraine and its Russian “front lines”, Urban should face. The better.