Is Russia planning a “false flag” attack on Moldova? | News of the Russian-Ukrainian war

Russia accused Moldova of planning a military operation in the country Transnistriaa Russian-backed separatist region, raising concerns among some analysts that Moscow may be staging a “fake” offensive in the region. Moldova.

Russian intelligence said earlier this week that Moldova’s Pres Maya Sandhu He was planning a military operation in TransnistriaWhich is located on the border with Ukraine. Sandu was sworn in for her second term as president on Tuesday.

The Russian Foreign Ministry claimed on Wednesday that NATO is turning Moldova into an arms hub for Ukraine, an accusation that will likely heighten concerns that Moscow may be seeking justification for potential action against its smaller neighbour.

Here’s more about what’s going on with Russia and Moldova, and what to expect.

What did Russia claim?

Russian foreign intelligence said on Monday that Moldova’s Sandu was planning a military operation in the country Transnistria. Russian intelligence speculated that the military operation could escalate into war.

Sandu’s chief of staff, Adrian Balotel, has refuted the allegations, insisting that the country has no such plans to enter Transnistria militarily, even though it claims the territory is part of Moldova.

Then on Wednesday, Russia added a new allegation that the US-led NATO alliance had transferred a large number of weapons to Moldova in recent months. Maria Zakharova, a spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, said Moscow believes these weapons were ultimately destined for Ukraine. She cited Sandu’s pro-Western leanings to bolster her claims.

In recent months, Russian President Vladimir Putin has increasingly suggested that not only Ukraine, but other countries aiding it in its war against Moscow, could be treated by the Kremlin as enemies it might attack.

What are the concerns of “pseudoscience”?

Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Sandu has raised the alarm that Moldova could be Moscow’s next target, urging Western leaders to address Moldova’s concerns.

When Sandu was sworn in for her second term this week in the capital, Chisinau, she said: “We have been able to open the door wide to the European Union.” Moldova has been a candidate country to join the European Union since June 2022, and is waiting for Brussels to officially accept its application to join the group.

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, D.C., say the Kremlin’s latest accusations may be part of a larger plan to obstruct Moldova’s accession to the European Union by destabilizing it. The Kremlin may also set conditions for a “false flag operation in Transnistria,” the Institute for the Study of War warned in a report.

What is Transnistria?

Transnistria is a breakaway region of Moldova allied with Russia, located between part of the Dniester River in Moldova and Ukraine. Romania lies to the west.

The region seceded from Moldova in 1990. In September 2006, it passed a referendum that reaffirmed its independence and called for union with Russia. Moldova did not recognize this referendum.

In February 2022, Transnistrian leaders issued an appeal to Russia for protection. This appeal came days after the outbreak of war in Ukraine, and was similar to calls made by pro-Moscow leaders to Russia in parts of Ukraine, which Russia used as a justification for seizing power. Crimea in 2014and large parts of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts in 2022.

Internationally, Transnistria is considered to belong to Moldova, but Europe considers the region occupied by Russia since 2022.

Transnistria hosts Russian forces, as well as Russia’s main weapons storage facility, the Kobasna ammunition depot.

Currently, 1,500 Russian soldiers are stationed within the breakaway region of Moldova, according to a report published by the Harvard International Review in October.

In what other ways is Russia putting pressure on Moldova?

political: Moldova voted in a Presidential elections Last month amid allegations of Russian interference. However, the pro-Western Sandu won 55.33 percent of the vote, defeating former Prosecutor General Alexander Stoyangelo, who had the support of the Russian-leaning Socialist Party.

In a report published earlier this year, London-based think tank Chatham House said the think tank’s research “suggests that Moscow is also targeting Moldova’s public media space with toxic disinformation.”

Moldova’s National Security Service also alleged that pro-Russian oligarchs in Moldova paid millions of euros to organize anti-government protests and rig elections. These include former Moldovan parliamentarian Ilan Shor, who was convicted in absentia on fraud charges in January.

energy: Meanwhile, Moldova is facing an energy crisis. Moldova receives about 2 billion cubic meters (71 billion cubic feet) of gas from Russia annually. Since 2022, all this gas is being sent to Transnistria.

Transnistria then sells electricity generated using Russian gas to Moldova.

However, this gas comes through a pipeline that passes through Ukraine. Kyiv has now decided that it will no longer allow this gas to pass through. Sandu accused Gazprom, the Russian gas giant, of refusing to consider using an alternative pipeline, and tried to prepare Moldova for what she said would be a “harsh” winter without Russian gas.

Russian gas supplies to Moldova are expected to end on January 1, 2025. Earlier in December, Moldova declared a state of emergency due to the impending shortage.

Transnistria then sells the electricity, fueled by Russian gas, to Moldova.

violence: In April 2022, explosions targeted the Ministry of State Security in Tiraspol, the largest city in Transnistria. A day later, further explosions destroyed two powerful radio antennas among other facilities in Transnistria.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, along with other Ukraine allies, said these explosions were also false attacks orchestrated by Russia to portray Transnistria as being under attack from Moldova — because of Moldova’s support for Ukraine.