Is India shares reduced?

This report is a “Inside India” newsletter in CNBC for this week, which brings you a timely and timely news to emerging power and major companies behind the height of a meteor. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

while Elegant 50 The index remains more than 7 % less than its rise on September 26, and it has risen about 10 % since it came out on April 7, when trade tensions escalated between the United States and China.

While concerns related to the state of the global economy have been tired of feelings of risk around the world, the slide in Indian stocks began a long time before Donald Trump started his second term as an American president and commercial definitions dominated by news headlines.

A lot of pain for investors, though, came from the inside. The ratings of the shares increased while the profits were flat, or what is worse, deteriorating. At its peak, the large Indian stocks in Ishaares MSCI India ETF Its value was estimated at about 30 times the profits, which is much higher than its average for five years.

However, the strong gathering over the past two weeks raises the issue of whether the shares have been found on the ground, and if investors are now looking for short -term fluctuations.

One of the main factors that support market flexibility was fixed support from local investors who pay money to stocks through Systematic investment plans (Sips), which compensates for clouds from foreign investors.

Although the FPI’s foreign investors withdraw a large capital earlier in the year, local institutions intervened, according to analysts in ICici Securities.

Vinod Karki, the bank’s strategy expert, noted that local institutional investors (DIIS) have so far poured $ 3 billion in April, which is marginally less than $ 3.2 billion in foreign funds in foreign funds amid fluctuations in trade war.

Karki said: “The reaction of stocks during the month of April 25 indicates that Diis may have continued to buy local (financial, industrial, and consumption) shares, while shares related to global demand may have seen the sale,” Karki said. “The cash parking for active money has risen while SIP flows were stable during Mar’25 – and they wear well for the stability of the market, assuming the intensification of the sale of FPI.”

JPMorgan analysts chanted this feeling in a note on HDFC Asset ManagementOne of the largest funds in the country.

“The industry has maintained positive new stock flows despite the negative market movements in the fourth quarter, indicating stability in the local flows that SIP contributions move primarily.” The fiscal year of India will last from April to March.

Beyond flows, signs of improvement appear in specific sectors.

ICici Securities also referred to the “bottom” profitability of the companies in the mining and chemicals sector and “less than EPS” expected from analysts. CNBC analysis inside India reveals that analysts have steadfastly reduced their profits 2025 per share of Indian stocks by 10 % over the past two years, where they have established investors for a profitable surprise when companies overcame estimates.

On the geopolitical front, some analysts also maintain the current global trade tensions, although dangerous, may provide more potential for a solution than previous crises.

Karki from ICici said that the current crisis can be reformed by politicians, unlike the global financial crisis or the epidemic, adding that “human interventions to avoid a major global crisis” are still possible.

Others agree.

“On a large scale, our position is that India is not annoyed with the trade war remains, and we believe that it will be” relatively unfamiliar “in the short term while it can appear as an beneficiary in the longer term if a commercial deal is achieved,” said Bernstein’s strategy in the running item.

Despite the local optimism, there are still great obstacles, which prevents the appearance of a “glow” sign. The main concern, which many analysts have echoed, is the influence of the “global tariff war”.

“The investment activity is likely to remain defeated by the uncertainty in the tariff policy,” said Goldman Sachs.

The decisive information technology sector in India, which depends heavily on Western markets, is likely to achieve direct success from these opposite winds. It is the use of external sources of giants Webroand InfosysAnd HCL techniques I have been constantly weak orientation and increased uncertainty that affect the customer’s spending.

JPMORGAN analyst called the “rare” HCL A performance just because it is in the line-it emphasizes the difficult environment of the sector in general.

However, with the appearance of green buds of the market under the trade war, the risks remain concrete.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met our Vice President JD Vance on Monday. in statement From Modi’s office, both leaders expressed “great progress” in them Discussions on bilateral trade And cooperation in areas such as energy and defense. Vans, who was in India, often met with a personal journey with the second lady, Osha Fans and his family, met Moody in New Delhi.

Progress in the trade deal in India and the United States. Indian Finance Minister Nermalla Setharmann expressed his hope that he The bilateral agreement of India-the United States on trade It can be reached “by autumn this year”, according to the comments made in San Francisco on Monday. Negotiations, which It started Wednesday It will be concluded on Friday, which will be led by the new trade negotiator in the country, Rajish Agrouwal. Settharman also said that New Delhi was aimed at reducing the country’s financial deficit to less than 4.5 % of GDP by the fiscal year 2026 from 4.8 % currently.

Tesla is preparing to enter the Indian market. Speaking of a profit call, the financial director, Vaibhav Taneja Reports That the company Work on expansion in IndiaAdding that it will be a great market for entering, thanks to the “big middle class”. However, India is also a “very difficult market”, where EV imports in the country are 70 % tariffs and about 30 % of the luxury tax, indicating that this can make Tesla in India twice expensive.

Indian stocks continued to run this week. the Elegant 50 The index closed over 24,000 points for the first time since the end of January of this year, heading to a 1.7 % profit this week. The index turned into positive and increased by 2.54 % this year.

The return of Indian government bonds lasted for 10 years decreased and decreased to 6.3 % this week.

On CNBC TV this week, Hiren Dasani, co -chair of emerging markets at Goldman Sachs Asset Manageman said India playing diversification Amid uncertainty in the broader market. Dasani noted that the Indian market is “one of the only few markets” since US President Donald Trump launched the “mutual” tariff on April 2.

Meanwhile, Rochet Mihata, head of the SBI MUTUAL FUND box, highlighted. A strong local growth story in India“He said that he is supported by strong and good consumption trends as a pure importer amid uncertainty in global trade. Mihata is also optimistic in the country’s banking sector.