Indonesia’s Prabowo steers a strategic middle course amid rivalry between China and the United States | news

When Prabowo Subianto was sworn in as Indonesia’s eighth president in October, the immediate question was what the appointment of the once-feared former special forces general would mean for Indonesia. Regional security During his five-year term.

Analysts tell Al Jazeera that Prabowo’s approach to foreign policy will differ significantly from his predecessor – former President Joko Widodo, known as “Jokowi” – whose tenure focused more on attracting foreign investment to Indonesia and building export markets, rather than on attracting foreign investment to Indonesia. And building export markets. Defense spending and international affairs.

With the intensification of competition between China and the United States In the Asia-Pacific region, it remains to be seen to what extent President Prabowo, 73, will lead Indonesia in a new foreign policy direction.

“Unlike Jokowi, who has largely delegated foreign affairs and security matters, Prabowo, through his defense minister, will lead more Opportunities with the PentagonNatalie Sambhi, an Indonesian expert and CEO of Verve Research, told Al Jazeera.

“However, we have early signs that Indonesia is looking to deepen its relationship with China, including resuming military exercises,” Sambhi said.

“We have five years to see whether the complexity and frequency of military exercises with the (Chinese) People’s Liberation Army will develop in ways that rival the intensity of the US military,” she said.

“Minimizing the impact of competition between the United States and China”

Although it raised some eyebrows at the time, Prabowo’s early selection of official visits after assuming Indonesia’s presidency revealed little of his strategic thinking regarding Indonesia’s place in a region of rapidly evolving military competition.

He visited Australia in August and Russia in September as Indonesia’s president-elect.

This was followed by a visit to China in November when he was elected president. Shortly after, he traveled to Washington, D.C., where he met with US President Joe Biden, culminating the visit with a phone call with US President-elect Donald Trump.

In late November, Prabowo visited the United Kingdom and met with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and King Charles.

The decision to visit Russia and China before the United States “definitely raised some alarm bells about what it would do to bilateral relations,” said Zachary Abuza, a lecturer in Southeast Asian politics and security at the National War College in Washington, D.C. “.

But the order of the countries Prabowo chose to visit could also have been a matter of logistics and timing rather than a symbolic indicator of strategic intentions, as visiting the United States would have been complicated while the country was in the middle of a presidential election. The campaign will take place in October and early November, Abuza said.

What is certain, according to Abuza, is that “Prabowo will be a different person” when it comes to foreign policy, and a new Indonesian president could also mean a strengthening of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) amid Beijing’s regional rivalry. And Washington.

Abuza said Prabowo “realizes that ASEAN is more effective with a stronger Indonesia at its helm.”

Analysts are likely to look at how Indonesia under Prabowo can deepen and diversify its regional security partnerships away from the twin poles of Washington and Beijing, Verve Research’s Sambhi said.

Sambhi said Indonesia’s other security partners may include Australia, France, India, the Philippines, South Korea and Vietnam.

“The more Indonesia does with other middle and emerging powers in the Indo-Pacific, the better it will be for the region in mitigating the impact of the US-China rivalry,” she said.

Commander of the Indonesian President’s Special Forces

Prabowo comes to Indonesia’s top job with a diversified portfolio and a checkered reputation in some Western countries that may now be keen to build a new security relationship as a counterweight to China.

Prabowo was born in Jakarta in 1951, and began his military career in 1970, when he joined the Indonesian Military Academy, graduating from it in 1974 before joining the Indonesian Special Forces Command (Kopasus).

Throughout his military career, he was accused of a series of charges Human rights violations While on active duty, including accusations of abuses in East Timor and West Papua, IndonesiaIn addition to his involvement in the bloody ethnic riots that occurred in 1998 during the fall of then President Suharto – to whom he was once a son-in-law.

Prabowo denied his involvement Kidnapping of student activists During Suharto’s rule, although he was never tried, allegations of abuse and rights violations led to him being banned from traveling to the United States and Australia for nearly two decades.

Washington quietly overturned Prabowo’s travel ban in 2020 when Jokowi appointed him Indonesia’s defense minister.

Australia also dropped its ban on Prabowo in 2014 when Canberra hastily predicted he was poised to secure the Indonesian presidency in his first attempt a decade ago.

Australia ‘positions itself exclusively on US shoulders’

Australia’s relationship with Indonesia remains complex.

Last August, the two countries signed a defense cooperation agreement that was described as “historic.”

Ian Wilson, a lecturer in political and security studies at Murdoch University in Perth, said the relationship between Indonesia and Australia would be worth watching as Prabowo tries to steer a middle path between China and the West.

Indonesia was one of the founders of the Non-Aligned Movement during the Cold War, and has a “bebas-aktif” or “free and active” approach to foreign policy, meaning it does not align with any major power bloc – Wilson told Al Jazeera that he instead chose to work with all .

However, Australia has new regional security commitments under AUKUS – the trilateral defense partnership between Australia, the UK and the US in the Asia-Pacific region. Wilson said this agreement means that Australia “effectively serves as a front line for the United States in the region.”

“Through AUKUS, Australia has an ongoing commitment to getting along with the US and there will be concern about what that means with Prabowo, where Indonesia will get along with everyone,” Wilson said.

He added: “Through his visit to Russia and China, (Prabowo) made it clear that Indonesia viewed them all as partners, while Australia was exclusively pressuring the United States.” How will Australia deal with this, especially as tensions rise with China and Australia?

“Prabowo and Indonesia’s broader approach may be seen as a nuisance now that Australia has narrowed its alliances, and AUKUS is an embodiment of that,” Wilson added.

In an interview in 2022, then Defense Minister Prabowo offered some valuable insights when he spoke about Indonesia’s close relationship with the United States, and its historically close relationship with China.

“We have good cooperation with both powers – I have said that many times,” he said, speaking on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, an annual security summit organized by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.

The United States has helped us many times in our critical moments. But China helped us too. “China has also stood up for us, and China is now a very close partner with Indonesia.”

“In fact, China has always been the leading civilization in Asia. Many of our sultans, kings and princes in those days were marrying princesses from China. We have relationships that are hundreds of years old,” he added.

“So, she asked me, where do we stand, as good friends trying to be, maybe a good common bridge.”