“India will not enjoy the means of Chinese luck”: The Samodarand’s blatant warning against global hostility and growth

With global markets turning inward and policy begins to rewrite economic rules, growth in India may face more solid resistance than expected. ASWATH DAMDARAN evaluation expert warns that the global environment in India is in which it enters much lower forgiveness than China, which was once transferred.

“India will face more hostility from the rest of the world, as it tries to grow, more than China during the past few decades,” he writes in its last blog, policy investment: the reaction of globalization and government disruption.

While China has become large enough to maintain growth through its local market, Damodaran notes that India’s aspirations are revealed at a time when globalization is no longer upward. “Globalization … now, from my view, heading and facing a reaction,” he writes.

The transition to the 2008 financial crisis is tracked, which says the public’s confidence in the international institutions and the systems led by experts. It is claimed that this erosion paved the way for political turmoil – Brooks, the rise of nationalist parties in Europe, and the presidency of Donald Trump.

In Trump’s second act, Damodara sees an unrestricted approach. “He practiced definitions as a weapon and is open to contempt for international organizations,” he said. While economists are worried about long -term damage, Damodara says a large part of the audience “chanting Trump.”

DAMODARAN, known for his evaluation vision, also collapses who gained and who lost from the era of globalization. Among the winners: China, which now represents approximately 38 % of Global GDP growth (2010-2023); Consumers, with more options at lower costs; Financial markets, which have become essential in public policy. Also in the winner circle: international institutions, multinationals, and experts who formed the speech in forums such as Davos.

But there were clear losers. Japan and Europe lost an economic basis. Small companies and workers with blue collars in advanced economies bears competition and recovery. “Manufacturing functions amounted to nearly 20 million in 1979 and decreased to about 13 million in 2024,” he writes about the United States experience. He also cited broader democratic erosion, as the voters, even when choosing the change, saw the policy dictated by a “global scenario”.

For DAMODARAN, these transformations are not abstract – they directly affect the company’s evaluation. “For the value of companies today, I have no choice but to bring the economy and politics in the world inhabited by these companies,” he writes.

One company under that lens is Tesla. In 2024, the stock was estimated at $ 182 and bought at $ 170. But last year, it changed the narration. Tesla is now facing a real competitor in the Chinese BYD, where the hybrid returns, and the policy of the polarized CEO of Elon Musk affects perception. “My appreciation for the value of Tesla is about $ 150 per share, about 30 dollars less than my value last year, and about $ 70 less than its share price,” he said.