How to confidence in Trump leads us to the allies away

F-35, a fifth-generation fighter, was developed in partnership with eight countries, which makes it International cooperation model. When President Trump came behind, the F-47, praised his strengths-and said that the version that is sold to the allies will be intentionally reduced.

This is logical, Mr. Trump said last week, “Because one day, they are not our allies.”

For many countries related to the United States, his observation confirmed a relevant conclusion: that it is no longer possible to trust him in America. Even countries that were not affected directly can see where things go, as Mr. Trump threatens the economies of the allies, their defense partnerships and even their sovereignty.

Currently, they negotiate to reduce pain from the strike after a blow, including a wide round of the expected definitions in April. But at the same time, they retreat. Preparing to intimidate to be a permanent advantage of American relations, trying to go in their own way.

Few examples:

• Canada made 4.2 billion dollars deal with Australia This month to develop the advanced radar and announced that he was holding talks Take part The accumulation of the European Military Union.

• Portugal and other NATO countries Reconsidering the plans To buy F-35s, the fear of US control over parts and programs.

• Negotiations acceleration After years of delay.

• Brazil is not only more trade with China, but it does so China currencyMarginalizing the dollar.

• numerous AlliesIncluding Poland, South Korea and Australia, to discuss if you have to do so Building or safe access to nuclear weapons Protect their own.

Some degree of moving away from the United States was in a state of movement, as other countries became richer, more capable and less convinced that the US centralization would be permanent. But the past few months of Trump 2.0 have shipped the process.

History and psychology helps explain the cause. Lack of powers has a strong long -term impact on political geography such as lack of confidence, according to sociologists who study international relations. Negotiations have been repeatedly poisoned in the Palestinian -Israeli conflict. Cold war tensions between the United States and the Soviet Union are burning for decades.

He argues the so-called realism-who see international relations as an unethical competition between countries interested in particular-that confidence in doubt should always be evaluated, because believing in goodwill is a risky matter.

But Mr. Trump raised more than cautious suspicion. The lack of confidence in his allies, it is clear to him Zero belief The gains for others are losses to America, and the new has been done. What has been created is familiar – a spiral that does not trust. If you think the other person (or the country) is not trustworthy, it is more likely that the rules and contracts are more likely to be shy. Studies showEnhancing partner’s lack of confidence, which leads to more aggression or low reaction.

“Female Confidence”, Paul Slovich, a psychologist at Oregon State University, wrote on a tool 1993 study On danger, trust and democracy. “It is usually somewhat slowly created, but it can be destroyed in a moment – with one accident or a mistake.”

In the case of Mr. Trump, the allies indicate a constant attack.

His neighbors in America in America, whose neighbors surprised imports from Mexico and Canada, and who ignored the free trade deal in North America that occurred during his first term, America’s neighbors.

His threats to make Canada an American state and send the US military to Mexico to continue the drug carts are noisy interventions on sovereignty, which is no different from his demands for Greenland and Panama. Blame Ukraine for the war that Russia began in more isolated allies, forcing them to the question: Are the United States defending dictators or democracy?

Relatively quickly, they decided that even if the suggestions of Mr. Trump – such as converting Gaza into the Riviera in the Middle East – were fantasies, and the trend lines indicate in the same direction: towards a lower global system like the Olympic Games and more like the final fighting.

Perhaps there is no country shocked more than Canada. It participates in the largest unplanned borders in the world with the United States, despite its wide variation in military power. Why? Because Canadians trust America. Now, in a large part of it, they don’t do it.

Mark Carney, Prime Minister in Canada, said on Thursday that his country’s traditional relationship with the United States was “over.”

“Trump has violated the deep assumption in Canadian foreign policy that the United States is a nation worthy of nature,” said Brian Rathbon, a professor of global affairs at the University of Toronto. “This is very threatened with the main Canadian interests in trade and security, which leads to the dumping of alternatives.”

Economic patriotism is somewhat new for Canada, but it led to a Canadian purchase The movement that urges consumers to avoid American products and stocks. Canadians also cancel American holidays in large numbers.

More importantly, in the long run, Mr. Trump’s threats were suddenly unanimously about a controversial policy or ignored: Canada must be building pipelines, ports and other infrastructure from east to west, and not from north to south, to reduce its dependence on the United States and push its resources abroad to Asia and Europe.

Europe is in this process. After the American elections, the European Union Put the final touches on a commercial deal With the countries of South America to create one of the largest commercial regions in the world, and it has worked on more closely commercial connections Indiaand South Africaand South Korea and Mexico.

Japan, the largest ally in America in Asia, gives the priority of new markets in the global south, as it offers fast -growing economies like Vietnam new clients.

“There was a young conception in Japan that we definitely have to change our investment portfolio,” said Ken Gimbo, a professor of international politics and security at Que University in Tokyo. For the current administration and those who follow, he added, “We have to control our expectations for the American alliance.”

On the defense front, what some call “the cancellation of America” ​​is more challenging. This is especially true in Asia, where there is no equivalent NATO, and dependence on American support has stopped some extent from the armies that the United States promised to defense (Japan, South Korea and the Philippines).

On Friday, Defense Minister Hitzisith He was in ManilaAnd promising to “define the priorities of this region and really shift.” But many American partners are now working together without the United States, as signing the mutual access agreements of each other’s forces and building new alliances to deter China as much as possible.

Europe, too, is Years away The ability to fully defend itself without the help of weapons and technology. However, in response to the definitions of the Trump administration, threats and general contempt – as in the chat that was leaked in the reference in which Defense Minister Beit Higseth Europe described it as “compassionate” – the European Union recently announced military spending plans. This includes A loan of 150 billion euros Defense Investment Program.

The European Union is increasingly cooperating 27 countries with two non -members, Britain and Norway, over the defense of Ukraine and the other strategic defense priorities.

For some countries, nothing is enough. Poland Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, Parliament said In early March, Poland will explore access to nuclear weapons, for fear that Mr. Trump cannot be trusted to defend the NATO nation completely.

“This is a race for security,” Mr. Tusk He said.

In February, South Korea Foreign Minister Zhou Tae Yol told the National Assembly that the construction of nuclear weapons “is not on the table, but this does not necessarily mean that it is outside the table as well.” Through some estimates, South Korea and Japan have the technical know -how to develop nuclear weapons in less than two months.

Pelehri Kossikan, a former Singaporean diplomat, said that a little confidence could lead to healthy caution, noting that Asia has been skeptical in America since the Vietnam War. He said that the final result of the Trump era could be a “more diverse world, with more maneuvering” and the least dominant United States.

But at the present time, the lack of confidence is spread. Experts said that it will take years of efforts to build the expensive confidence to bring America to the allies, the new or the old, for anything long -term.

“It is difficult to create confidence and easy to lose,” said Deborah Wilsh Larson, a political scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, who wrote a book on the role of the Cold War in lack of confidence. “The lack of confidence in the intentions and motives of the United States grows day after day,” she added.

Reports previously contributed Matina Stevez Gridin From Toronto, Gina Smileick From Brussels, Shui Sang Hoon From Seoul and Martin Fackerler From Tokyo.