Even a crowd of analyst Perma is covering Timing He was warned of disappointing results in the Q1, a view indicated by the weak records of the quarter reported in early April.
But the numbers issued after the market closed on April 22 were much worse than expected.
Car sales fell by 20 % during the same period last year to $ 14 billion. Despite the 12 -month strong gains in the artificial and residential batteries storage concession, the total revenue decreased by 9 %. Low profitability has decreased sales, and a net income sent to nearly 40 % to $ 409 million, much lower than expectations of more than $ 600 million by Wall Street, and what Tesla got recently as Q2 From 2023.
When these results decrease disastrously less than “consensus”, it is almost given to drilling arrows in the following days. But Musk organized another victory from the ingenuity to save today. In the collective call, he announced that, starting in May, he will retract his role as President Trump’s commander in Dog, and will “allocate more time to Tasla.” The richest person in the world has also succeeded in converting investor looks from the new miserable numbers to the promise rich in the upcoming things, announcing that a long -awaited version of the Model y sports vehicle will arrive later this year, and that Tesla Robotaxis will play its passengers around Austin’s birthplace in 2026.
So when the New York Stock Exchange was closed on Thursday, April 24, Tesla’s shares jumped by 9 % of the level before the first quarter report to 260 dollars. On that day and a half, Tesla added 67 billion dollars from the maximum market, which raised its evaluation to 836 billion dollars.
The Rub: Tesla shares looked exaggerated radically before this unlikely height. This is the reason.
In the past quarter, Tesla lost her money in her “militant” work
The products produced by Tesla now explain in Austin, Berlin and Shanghai only a small part of its evaluation. Their wealth is falling quickly. The rest – which has so far a challenge of the Q1 disaster – can be called “Musk Hope Premium”.
In the aftermath of the bad Q4 report, but not freely, this writer presented a new concept to measure the repetitive TESLA profits and provisions created by its current works-which includes exclusive cars and batteries, as well as a small service unit. To get there, these gains were canceled once as a great tax benefit in the last quarter of 2023, and unlawful profits for the acquisition of $ 600 million of bitcoin possesses in the fourth quarter. I have also excluded profits from selling organizational credits to competing car makers, a interest that Musk himself says will prove fast -demolishing, although the speed that faded is still unexpected.
What we will film from these “militant” profits show the maximum of the giant Tesla market that is justified by what it is doing now, how much is the debtor of “Musk Hope Premium”, CEO of Celebrity for full self -driving software and vehicles for Tesla buyers, and commercial commercial robots. So far, these assurances have proven to be a continuous horizon.
For the number of “militants”, it started with net profits of $ 409 million, and offered profits after deducting taxes from selling organizational credits. This result is $ 433 million, and it represents more than 100 % of Tesla’s total profits. By Calculipomic account, Tesla lost 13 million dollars in making and selling cars and batteries in the first quarter. It is the first time that this has happened since 2020.
During the past four quarters, Tesla has published “hardline”, and we hope it will be “repetition” $ 3.5 billion. Consequently, it is now sold at the P/E rate of 240 (the evaluation of $ 836 billion divided into my profit of $ 3.5 billion). By the way, at its peak in 2022, the “militants number” in Tesla this year was nearly $ 12 billion, over the course of three times what it achieved in the past 12 months.
Let’s give the business of P/E out of 20, twice the average global industry, just to be generous. This places the value of its operations currently at $ 70 billion. The full difference of $ 766 billion is basically a blind vote of confidence that Musk will achieve years of profits from here rarely witnessed in the records of capitalism and was not achieved by a player at the age of Tesla and his size.
If you want to return 10 % of here, the price of Tesla will need to double from $ 260 to $ 520 in seven years. Of course, Musk’s Machine arrived there two months ago. But the future looks very dimose now than it was on the upcoming days after Trump was elected. Beating the brand means that the Tesla market cover must also double, to more than 1.6 trillion dollars. In A, again, generous forecasts of 30 P/E, net profits required for more than $ 50 billion. Cars will not do it. Tesla will need to earn half of what apple It is now generated on products that have not been offered from drawing panels and premium models to display halls.
Musk seems again to bother investor minds
Tesla Q1 blames the miserable performance in “uncertainty in the car and energy (which) markets (which) is still increasing, as the advanced trade policy rapidly affects the global supply chain and the cost structure in Tesla and our peers.” In other words, Tesla blames the head of musk at the White House.
In the music movie Music man, The seller of the seller Harold Hill, they emptied the good town residents in the legendary city of the river to pushing tromone and chlinies who were always on the verge of arrival. WordPlay implanted from Hill visions of a glorious march band to poison his fans. The music man had nothing on Elon Musk.
This story was originally shown on Fortune.com
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