How exporters are scrambling in China to alleviate the impact of the punishment of American definitions

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Machinery and ready -made vehicles for shipping in the dock of the eastern branch in the port of Layneongang, China, on September 27, 2024.

Costfoto | Norfuto Gety pictures

BEIJING – The United States has raised definitions on Chinese imports to triple numbers. For China’s exporters, this means raising the prices of Americans while speeding up plans to diversify operations – and in some cases, stopping shipments completely.

American consumers may lose access to some products in June because some American companies have stopped their plans to import textiles from China, said Riangsu Green Willow Textile.

On Thursday, in Chinese, he said, “It is impossible to predict” products that are still shipped from China, “impossible to predict” how high prices for American consumers. “It takes to charge the products from China ports from two to four months of Chinese ports and reach American supermarkets. In the past two months, customs duties have increased from 10 % to 125 % today.”

The White House confirmed that the average US tariff for Chinese goods was Effectively at 145 %. Three -number definitions Essentially cutting the tradeA economist at the tax institution told CNBC.Exchange

But the commercial relationship between the United States and China It will not change overnightEven when American companies are looking from China for alternatives.

Kevin Hassett from NEC on a 90 -day tariff: The Treasury Market helped make a decision more urgency

Tony Post, CEO of the US -based running shoe company, said he is planning to work more with suppliers in Vietnam as well as his current suppliers in China.

When the first two rounds of 10 % of the American customs tariff were imposed this year, he said that the four Chinese suppliers offered the cost division with Topo. But now “more than the cost of the product itself has been added only to import duties in the past few months.”

“I will eventually have to raise prices and do not know the certainty of the effect that will happen on our business,” said Post. Before Trump started tariffs, a Post predicted $ 100 million of revenue this year – primarily from the United States

Economic repercussions

Hopes for The United States of Chinese deal to solve trade tensions faded Quickly, Beijing, last week, returned to dream duties of American goods and wide restrictions on American companies.

Late on Thursday, China’s shipments to the United States will likely collapse 80 % over the next two years.

Goldman Sachs cut on Thursday China GDP expectations To 4 % gave clouds from American trade tensions and global growth slower.

Goldman Sachs said that while Chinese exports to the United States are only about 3 degrees Celsius of GDP in China, there is still a major impact on employment. They estimate that about 10 million to 20 million workers in China are involved in export companies in the United States.

While Beijing is already trying to treat slow growth, one of its strategy is to help Chinese exporters sell more at home. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce said on Thursday that it recently collected major business associations to discuss measures to boost sales locally instead of abroad.

But Chinese consumers were hesitant in spending, which is a strengthening trend with another decrease Consumer price inflationThe data issued on Thursday showed.

“The Chinese local market cannot accommodate the current offer, and the additional amounts are much lower,” said Derek Skyzz, a colleague of his oldest colleague at the American Institute’s Research Institute.

Beijing is expected to be able to follow his playing book to make concessions to the United States, empty products to other countries, and support for making losses and allowing other companies to die. The conversion of goods to other countries is likely to increase local commercial barriers against China, while subsidies will exacerbate debts and shrinkage at home.

China has made consumption enhance its priority this year and expand support for the consumer trade program that focuses on home appliances. I tell the professor at the University of Tsinghwa Lee Dukoy CNBC’s “CNBC’s”China’s connection“On Thursday, it is expected to enhance consumption measures” within 10 days. “

It is difficult to replace

While the United States government has sought over the past few years to encourage manufacturers to build factories in the country, especially in the high -tech sector, companies and analysts said it would not be easy to develop these facilities and find experienced workers.

“We cannot get similar equipment from sources in the United States,” Ford said in the US tariff to exempt the US tariff last month to a manufacturing tool used to make the electric car battery cells. “The American resource had no specific experience With the process of handling and heating. “

Timing And other major companies also have I submitted requests similar to exclusion From the United States definitions.

A large part of the goods can be obtained from China alone. Goldman Sachs analysts said this week that 36 % of American imports from China can only come more than 70 % of suppliers in the Asian country. They said this indicates that it would be difficult for us to find importers from us, despite the new definitions.

On the other hand, only 10 % of Chinese imports from the United States depend on American suppliers.

The second largest economy in the world also sought to move to high manufacturing. In addition to clothes and shoes, the United States relies on China for computers, machines, home appliances and electronics, Allianz researches said last week.

diversification

China was the second largest supplier for American goods in 2024, as imports from China increased by 2.8 % to $ 438.95 billion last year American Statistics Office data. Mexico ascended to first place from 2023, while the United States imports from Vietnam – which benefited Restore Chinese goods – More than weakness in 2024 of 2019, data showed.

Zao said from the green fabric in Southeast Asia.

Tariff

For his private company, “We are developing customers in Southeast Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Europe this year to reduce our dependence on the United States market,” noting that the company cannot bear the cost of additional tariffs given its net profit of 5 % already.

China’s trade has grown with Southeast Asia quickly since 2019, making the region the largest commercial partner in the country, followed by the European Union and then the United States in 2024, according to Chinese customs data.

Chinese President Xi Jinping Vietnam is scheduled to visit Monday On Tuesday, followed by a trip to Malaysia and Cambodia later in the week.

“Ultimately,” said Deborah Elmz, president of the Henrich Foundation, on CNBC.China’s connection” Thursday.

On Wednesday, Trump stopped his plans at a sharp rise in definitions for most countries, including in Southeast Asia, but not for China.

These stops made a brief satisfaction for people like Steve Greenspon, CEO of Honey-Can-Do International, which is based in the Illinois-based, whose company has moved to more production from China to Vietnam from the first time of Trump.

“It allows us to stop temporarily to continue working as usual outside China, but we cannot develop any long -term plans,” said Grenspons. “It is difficult to know how to show because we don’t know what will happen in 90 days.”

Some analysts predict that economic facts can push the United States and China towards a deal.

Gary Dvorchak, Managing Director of the Blueshirt Group, noted on Thursday that the latest definitions have not been announced in the past few days, and it is expected to escalate the duties likely before a deal – maybe as soon as possible in the next few days.

Despite the aggressive discourse, it is believed that both countries have a lot to lose if the definitions are permanent. He said that the United States to cut the United States of Chinese goods will drown China in deeper depression.



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