How did South Sudan return to the brink of war

The smaller world is facing the threat of war again.

This month, a United Nations helicopter Attacked During the evacuation mission in a remote area in southern Sudan, with the killing of a member of its crew and two others were seriously injured. The journey was saving the wounded government soldiers who clashed with an armed group in the state of the Upper Nile in the northeast. A day later, the United States said it removes all the country’s non -emergency employees from the country, citing security threats.

The attack on the comic stability of the Eastern nation from East Africa confirmed nearly a decade and a half, after it gained independence in hope and hope. The latest clashes, and previous political tensions, have regional observers who fear the collapse of a peace agreement agreed upon seven years ago.

Here is what to know.

Who is fighting?

The main parties participating in the latest clashes are the Sudanese National Army, during the era of President Salva Kiir’s government, and an opposition force known as the White Army, which is believed to be allied with Vice President Rick Maher.

Mr. Kiir and Mr. Machar led the two warring sides of the civil war that erupted in 2013, and ends with a The fragile peace agreement in 2018. The deal, which was collected in the capital, Juba, moved to ensure the participation of the two sides in the profits from oil exports, and Machar returned as the vice president.

After deep political and ethnic tensions I enduredAs the militias and armed factions did with the shift of loyalty. Clashes often It is characterized by violence between racesEspecially between the collections of Mr. Kiir’s Dinka and Machar’s Nuer. Repeated violence nullified the displacement on a large scale, and the country fell to free economic fall and raised the price of food and fuel sharply.

What led to the latest escalation?

The political alliance of Mr. Machar Accuse To target his allies in February, including by launching a large -scale operation against his supporters in the state of Upper Nile. At least 22 political and military leaders allied with Mr. Machar They were arrestedHuman Rights Watch said the location of some of them was still unknown.

In early March, the government He accused the white army Whoever attacks and seizes a military garrison in the northern town of Nasser along the border with Ethiopia. The authorities in Juba responded to the arrest of many allies of Mr. Mashir, including Vice President of the Army, General Gabriel Dub Lam, and Minister of Petroleum, Bob Kang Chul.

The United Nations helicopter of the Nile is shot on March 7, though Safe Corridor assurancesAccording to the head of the South Sudan Mission, the United Nations, Nicholas Heissum. In addition to a member of the helicopter, the attack left many military officers, including a general, the United Nations said.

The latest tensions on the sensitive government were exposed to the risk of collapse, as opposition groups described the arrests as a sign of Mr. Kiir’s hesitation in honoring the peace agreement and its determination to maintain control of the country’s political scene. The presidential elections, which were now scheduled for next year, have been delayed over and over, causing frustration between the opposition factions.

“South Sudan is one of the main escalation away from slipping into a new civil war,” said Alan Bouswell, Director of the Horn of Africa in the International Crisis Group. “In the event of a large -scale government or ethnic violence, the country can explode.”

Are we affected by the discounts in the situation?

The cuts in American aid already have a comfortable impact on the humanitarian situation in southern Sudan. US He spent $ 760 million on programsIncluding food aid in emergency and health, in the country in 2023.

Relief groups say that the scarcity of humanitarian aid increases food insecurity, and the stopping of health programs may spread diseases such as cholera, malaria and tuberculosis further. In January, The United Nations said This violence, bureaucratic obstacles, and critical blackmail of its contractors impeded the effective delivery of aid, including in the Upper Nile State.

What role does Uganda play?

Uganda said last week that Its special forces king Posted in Juba “To secure” the southern Sudanese capital. The Ugandan army chief said in a Social media yet His nation confessed to Mr. Kiir as president of the only country.

He said, “Any step against him is a declaration of war against Uganda,” adding: “Everyone who commits this crime will learn what it means.”

Juba officials have not publicly confirmed the presence of the forces. But the Ugandan ruling parliamentary assembly supports the publication, She described it as “A necessary intervention to enforce peace to protect lives, restore stability and prevent further escalation of conflict.”

Ugandan president, Yiri Museini, has deployed forces in southern Sudan several times in the past to support the government of Mr. Kiir. Youssef Sierrankoma, a researcher and researcher at the University of Michairi in Uganda, said that reports of a decrease in the health of Mr. Kiir means that he needs to support Mr. Musivini more. (South Sudan has repeatedly denied the assurances that Mr. Kiir has health problems.)

Observers say that the civil war in the neighboring Sudan, which killed tens of thousands and has been displaced, has disrupted oil exports in southern Sudan, which limits Mr. Kiir’s ability to finance his network of sponsorship.

“Salva Kiir Rick Menhar has been accused of planning to overthrow him in a coup – an old accusation since the establishment of the country,” said Mr. Sranicoma. But with Ugandan publication, he added, “Maybe they will maintain the current situation.”

Regional observers are concerned that Ugandan publication and collapse ultimately can converge with The war to the north in Sudan And wandering in the region in more conflict.

What happens after that?

The United Nations and regional bodies in South Sudan called for the crisis and resolved issues through dialogue. Leaders of the International Government International Authority in Development Last week To release the detained officials, “unless the reliable evidence requires legal procedures.”

The United Nations Human Rights Committee in South Sudan He also said All parties must work to make the necessary changes to complete a transitional period before the elections, including by reforming the constitution.