How can Ukraine break the Western alliance

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Fear of Russia, the Western Alliance, collected together. Now fear of Russia threatens to dismantle it.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization was formed in 1949 by the United States, Canada and the Europeans to deter Moscow. But if the Trump administration now tries to force Ukraine to accept a partial defeat in its war with Russia, America will see on a large scale in Europe as a Russian aggression. If NATO allies can no longer agree on the threat they face – and how to deal with it – their alliance is completely in danger.

The Atlantic Ocean alliance survived many deep differences over the decades – from Suez in 1956 to wars in Vietnam and Iraq – because there was always an understanding, in the end, the United States and its European allies were on the same side.

The partnership of the United States of European was based on common interests and values. Throughout the Cold War, common concern was to contain the Soviet threat. The common value was to defend democracy. Even after the end of that war, it gave those that revolve around terrorism and the protection of new democracies in Europe, NATO, a common purpose.

But this common understanding is now tense. A catastrophic conclusion of the war in Ukraine can completely attract it.

Last week, the United States and Europe were paying various peace plans for Ukraine. Europeans reject the main elements of Trump’s plan – above all, legal recognition of the inclusion of Crimea.

Donald Trump seemed to have a friendly conversation with Volodimir Zellinski from Ukraine in Rome during the weekend – the American leader also ventured with a rare criticism of Vladimir Putin. But America has not withdrawn any elements of the peace plan that the Europeans and Ukrainians find very rejected.

The basic of this dispute is great visions of international security – and from the next war threat. Europeans believe that the reward for Russian aggression in Ukraine will make it likely to attack the rest of Europe – from the Baltic states.

The Trump administration sees things completely differently. It is worrying that the United States will eventually be withdrawn into a direct conflict with Russia. Trump has repeatedly warned himself of the threat of the Third World War. The Biden administration was also concerned about the risk of escalation with Russia. However, unlike Trump, Putin’s deep doubts participated in Putin’s deep doubts and not to reward Russian aggression.

The difference in security visions now exceeds the issue of how to end the Ukraine war. America’s allies must face the fact that Trump directly threatens the lands of two NATO members.

Trump has repeatedly pledged to integrate Greenland – an independent part of Denmark – in the United States. In a recent interview with Time Magazine, it is also repeat His desire to turn Canada into the 51st American state. Trump has not made public military threats against Canada. But he clearly wants to extinguish his presence as an independent country.

He combined these authoritarian instincts, his threats to NATO allies and his clear sympathy for Putin – and it is difficult to say that NATO is still an alliance based on common values.

In fact, the conflict in values ​​is now in the open. The United States and its largest European allies are still saying that they are defending democracy. But both of them believe (or in favor of belief) that democracy is threatened on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean.

In a famous speech now at the Munich Security Conference, JD Vance accused European allies in America of suppressing freedom of expression and fear of their people. Vice President’s accusations were met with cold anger in most of Europe-where Trump’s efforts to cancel the US presidential elections for 2020 did not end and its attacks on the American judiciary, and the media and universities did not end.

The Trump administration and its European allies are now conflicting visions of Western values. Vans-Trump’s vision is ethnic nationalities, culturally conservative and liberal. European international is based on law and liberal institutions.

The partition is more bitter because both sides believe that this is an existential battle for political survival – and looks at the allies on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean. The Trump administration wants to work with nationalist populists such as Hungary Victor Urban, Robert Fico of Slovakia or Nigel Varage in Britain. The major European governments were hoping that Kamal Harris would win the American presidency and are now in the account of the days until the mid -term elections.

The Atlantic coalition used to be a commitment from the two parties that could escape government changes easily. It may only succeed if the liberals – or the non -local – in power on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean at the same time.

Until then there are reasons for doubt. In addition to common values ​​and interests, the Western alliance depends on confidence. All parties need to know that they will continue, whatever happens in the upcoming elections. But the Europeans and Canadians now know that the United States is able to elect Trump twice. They can no longer take American steadfastness as a Muslim.

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