Goldman says that the customs tariff for high inflation, the growth of a trick and the increased risk of stagnation

With the day of the decision waving on the horizon this week for President Donald Trump’s last tour of the definitions, Goldman Sachs expects aggressive duties from the White House to raise inflation, unemployment and withdraw economic growth to near growth.

The Investment Bank is now expecting that the customs tariff rates will jump 15 percentage points, which is the previous “risk” scenario that now seems more likely when Trump announces the mutual tariff on Wednesday. However, Goldman noticed that the exceptions of the product and the country eventually will decrease to a decrease to 9 degrees Celsius.

When the new commercial moves are enacted, the Goldman Economic Team, led by Global Investment Research Chief Jean Hatzius, sees a widespread and negative impact on the economy.

In a note published on Sunday, the company said, “We still believe that the risks from the April 2 tariff are greater than many participants in the market that he previously assumed.”

The above -target inflation

When inflation, the company sees its preferred basic measure, with the exception of food and energy prices, to 3.5 % in 2025, an increase of 0.5 percentage than previous expectations and the Federal Reserve goal exceeded 2 %.

This will in turn with weak economic growth: only an annual growth rate of 0.2 % in the first quarter and 1 % for the full year when measured from the fourth quarter from 2024 to Q4 of 2025, a decrease of 0.5 degrees Celsius from previous expectations. In addition, Wall Street now believes that unemployment reaches 4.5 %, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from previous expectations.

If Goldman is now taking, a 35 % chance is expected to stagnate in the next 12 months, an increase of 20 % in previous expectations.

The expectation draws an increasing opportunity Rawd economyWith low growth and high inflation. The last time the United States witnessed a recession in the late 1970s and early eighties. At that time, the Federal Reserve led by Paul Volker raised the interest rates significantly, which sent the economy to the recession as the central bank chose to fight inflation to support economic growth.

Three price discounts

Economists in Goldman do not see this is the case this time. In fact, the company now expects that the Federal Reserve will reduce its standard price three times this year, assuming the increases of the quarter -point points, up from the previous projection of price discounts.

The economists in Goldman, which indicates the average federal reserve bank, decreased from 4.25 % to 4.5 % of the day. % “.

Although the latest definitions are still unknown, Wall Street Journal mentioned on Sunday Trump pushes his team towards imposing more aggressive fees that may mean 20 % great success for American merchant partners.

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