Goldman Sachs says that oil prices may decrease to a range of $ 50 by the end of the year if there is a recession.

The sales of markets that precede the tariff oil did not spare oil, and analysts in Goldman Sachs believe that prices are heading to a decrease if the global economy is in a stagnation.

This week, Goldman Sachs reduced their BRNT expectations to an average of $ 62 a barrel in 2025 and $ 58 for WTI under the assumption that the Trump tariff will reduce, avoid the United States recession, and avoid OPEC modestly in the following months may increase.

But if the definitions remain high as announced in the beginning and track the recession, prices may go to a range of $ 50 by the end of the year.

“Assuming the existence of a typical American stagnation and our primary plate in OPEC, we can decrease to $ 58/50 by December 25, respectively,” Julia Chustkova Gregsby, Vice President of Commodity Research in Goldman Sashis, wrote in a note of customers on Monday night.

She added: “In the scenario of the slowdown in Global GDP and the maintenance of the OPEC baseline, we can decrease to $ 54/45 by December 26.”

In the rare, but more severe scenario, Goldman sees cases of Brent less than $ 40.

“Finally, in a more extremist and less likely scenario with the slowdown in global GDP and full relaxation of OPEC+ discounts, which would discipline other than OPEC, we appreciate that Brent will decrease with a little $ 40/barrels in late 2026.”.

On Tuesday, crude wore more than 1 % with West Texas Medium (Cl = fFutures are hovering over $ 61 a barrel. Brent (Bz = fThe international standard also rose above $ 65 a barrel.

The decline is followed by 13 % during the last three sessions, as traders evaluated the impact of a global trade war after President Trump’s sweeping announced last week. Fears of excess supply may be agreed after the organization of oil -exporting countries and their allies to increase prices in prices.

Most of the Wall Street analysts agree that if the sweeping tariff plan that was announced on April 2 becomes valid and remains in place or escalation, the possibility of a The recession is high.

“The definitions, if they remain in place, will be a great success for the United States and global growth, the United States and the global economy are likely to pushing this year,” Natasha Kinifa And her team wrote last Friday.

“However, although it is currently difficult to predict the general trend of developments, we believe that for oil prices, the path is unambiguous in one direction.”

Analysts believe that the basics of demand may help the Trump administration achieve its goal of lowering oil prices.