Customers shop for fresh fruits and vegetables in the Munich supermarket, Germany, on March 8, 2025.
Michael Ngwin Norfuto Gety pictures
Initial data from the country’s statistical office showed on Monday that German inflation came in a state less than expected 2.3 % in March.
Compare February 2.6 % printing, which has been revised less than a preliminary reading, and a poll of the Reuters economists who expected inflation to reach 2.4 %, printing is coordinated across the euro area for comparison.
On a monthly basis, coordinated inflation increased by 0.4 %. The basic inflation, which excludes food and energy costs, reached 2.5 %, lower than reading 2.7 % in February.
Meanwhile, the inflation of services, which was long ago, decreased to 3.4 % in March, from 3.8 % in the previous month.
Critical time for the economy
The data comes at a critical time for the German economy, as US President Donald Trump’s tariff looms on the horizon and financial and economic policy at home can be imminent.
Trade is a major pillar of the German economy, which makes it more susceptible to uncertainty and quickly change developments that currently dominate global trade policy. A large number of drawings from the United States are scheduled to enter this week, including 25 % definitions Imported cars – The sector is the key to Germany’s economy. Political leaders in the country and their heavy car industry criticize Trump’s plans.
However, how the commercial struggle will affect inflation is unclear, Carsten Barzeski, the global president of the Macro in Engy.
“The escalation of trade tensions waving on the horizon and potential European revenge to the American tariff can add to the short -term inflationary pressure,” he said.
“In the long run, any commercial war can also turn into an erosion power for Germany and the euro region if growth will weaken and companies are likely to have to sell their increasing stocks,” Brezeski said, noting that the goods that were originally produced to the American market can be sold in Europe at a drop in price.
At the same time, the political parties in Germany are working to establish a new alliance government after results February 2025 Federal elections. There are ongoing negotiations between the Christian Democratic Union, along with the brotherly party of the Christian Social Union and the Social Democratic Union.
While the different points of disagreement seem to remain between the two parties, their talks have already achieved some results. Earlier this month, the lawmakers voted in Germany in favor of A. The main financial packageWhich included adjustments to the long -term debt rules to allow higher defensive spending and the infrastructure fund 500 billion euros ($ 541 billion).
The next European Central Bank price decision
Franzeska Palace, an economist in Europe at Capital Economy, notes in a note.
French coordinator Economic inflation It did not change at 0.9 % on an annual basis in March, less than expected. In Spain reading It decreased sharply to 2.2 %, a decrease from 2.9 % in the previous month and also less than expected.
Inflation numbers in the euro area are due on Tuesday. Other Reuters economists were 2.3 % reading.
Palace said on Monday: “The numbers of Germany, along with those in France, Italy and Spain, indicate that the main inflation in the eurozone will come 2.2 % in March, which is slightly less than expectations,” Palace said on Monday. She added that the basic inflation is expected to be unchanged, or a little less than what was the case in February.
“It is possible that the inflation of services has also fallen, which will satisfy the officials of the European Central Bank,” she said, adding that “the smooth decline in Germany must be compensated for more than 0.1 % in France and Italy.”
“This increases the possibility of reducing the rates of the European Central Bank again in April, in line with our expectations, instead of stopping,” Palmas said.
The last price markets were about 91 % of the rate of 25 Passis interesting point from the European Central Bank on April 17.
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