“GDP in India may get 0.5 % in the 26th fiscal year due to the American tariff: HSBC’s Pranjul Bhandari

The Indian economy can grow slower than expected in the 26th fiscal year, as Brangol Bahandari, the chief economy in India, Brangul, Bandari, warns that the high tariff for US President Donald Trump may fly 0.5 percentage points of GDP growth this year.

“We (India) sells a lot of goods to the United States, and now we will be held accountable for an additional tax on that, which is higher than before.” “Someone will have to bear this pain – either the Indian producer of this good or the American consumer of this good or a mixture of the two.”

BHANDAri GDP growth in India is less than expected earlier due to the direct blow of definitions. “For example, I expected growth to be 6.5 %, but it might be 6 % now or maybe a little less,” she said. “So there will be growth on all this.”

While India’s reserve price discounts may help expand the strike, Bahandari has made a second more worrying impact: slowdown in global trade sizes.

“There is also an indirect preposition that we must be very careful. With all these definitions, you will slow down global growth sizes … There will be this large indirect effect. My sense is that GDP growth in India will be much less in FY26 than we thought.”

On the effects of the sector, Bhandari said the effect is very liquid and sensitive to political changes. “We can discuss a group of winners and losers today, but if any changes are made, this group may change completely tomorrow,” she said.

For example, she indicated that the drug exporters initially fear a great success, but their outlook changed overnight when the drugs were exempt from definitions. “Therefore, Pharma’s shares have achieved very well … but there are many other sectors – tolerance, cars, agriculture, and chemicals – which will now face a tariff higher than we thought just 48 hours ago.”

She said that uncertainty could stop the investment. “People who want to make investments in Capex on Pharma or the fabric – they will all sit. No one will do anything because things change very quickly with a pen of pen.”

The United States imposed 27 % of the mutual tariffs on most Indian goods starting from April 9, in addition to the 10 % foundation from April 5. While sectors such as energy, semi -conductors and pharmaceutical preparations are expected to be exempt, and major Indian exports, including clothes, medical devices and jewelry, are expected to be affected.

The Indian government said it is evaluating the impact closely and exploring ways to turn the turmoil into an opportunity through the deeper commercial participation with the United States.

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