Experts say the deadly earthquake deepens political turmoil

The ruling military council in Myanmar seizes a deadly earthquake as an opportunity to restore control amid a stressful civil war. Analysts say that a permanent ceasefire is still unlikely.

A huge earthquake of 7.7 degrees two weeks ago, one of the strongest that struck Myanmar in a century, and ignored a nation that has already been destroyed by a brutal civil war that broke out millions and destroyed its economy.

The number of official deaths It rose to 3471 from SundayWith thousands of wounded or missing. The predictive modeling of the American geological survey was ultimately killed 10,000 economic losses to overcome the annual GDP of the war torn by the war, which is what It amounted to 66.8 billion dollars in 2023According to the World Bank.

A few hours after the earthquake, the ruling council announced the state of emergency in the most difficult cities and issued an appeal to international aid-a step that represents a flagrant contradiction with its effects Cyclone Nargis, which struck the Asian nation in 2008. After that, JUNTA initially rejected international aid, ultimately leading to a death of more than 84,000 with tens of thousands.

This shift in his response, which some described as “unfamiliar”, sparked cautious hope in a political settlement between the military council and the resistance forces, as previous natural disasters in the region have led to peace talks. In 2004, the Indian Ocean tsunami The armistice deal was paid Between the Indonesian government and the local rebels to facilitate relief efforts.

However, analysts do not see a little opportunity for a similar peace agreement in disasters.

“The battle lines are largely depth, and there are almost common reasons in which the Military Council and the opposition, including the warrior armed groups, can come to any useful dialogue,” said Angchant Ch Xodry, foreign policy analyst in Singapore.

He said that any ceasefire declaration will be “very temporary and exposed to violation due to the tensions on the ground,” expecting that “the military council in the wake of the earthquake quietly to reduce the capabilities of the resistance and gain a top hand in the battlefield.”

Last Wednesday, the army announced The ceasefire for 20 days It lasts until April 22 to support humanitarian efforts with its warning “you will respond accordingly” if the rebels start the attacks.

Myanmar has descended into a political and humanitarian crisis since 2021 when its army overthrew an elected government, which sparked a multi -mountain civil war that led to the displacement of 3.5 million and left its economy in a state of lament.

If anything, the earthquake may make Myanmar “more than a failed and violent country.”

“Coranezek said that the bad earthquake response – there is no way that can have a decent reaction – only enhances the general anger and disgust from the ruling army, which already has a lot of population, while “the opposition will enhance people again, and see the insufficient chasers to do anything other than killing people.”

The site of armed conflict and events, which monitors global conflicts, classifies Myanmar in the name of The second most violent and dangerous place in the world last year.

About 90 % of The country’s population is 55 million They were exposed to political violence, I noticed Acled. Its employees also lack access to electricity, communications, health care and education and they are vulnerable to crimes, including human trafficking and drugs.

Before announcing the ceasefire, the army remained in full swing and held several air strikes in the areas affected by the earthquake, According to Amnesty International reports.

Junta also sought to Summer humanitarian efforts By maintaining narrow security measures and using its forces to prevent aid supplies to displace the areas that hit them near the earthquake controlled by government control forces, according to the United Nations Human Rights Office on Friday.

In an incident confirming the challenges of providing assistance amid a continuous civil war, the Military Council He said Its forces launched warning shots at the Chinese Red Cross convoy, which failed to withdraw in a struggle area.

“The military council has already shown through its ongoing air strikes that it would prioritize the defeat of resistance due to relief from disasters,” said Scott Marcel, Senior Adviser to the Power Asia Group and former US ambassador in Myanmar.

During a rare foreign trip after the devastating earthquake, the president of Junta Min Aung Hlaing, which most world leaders avoided, was avoided, I received warmly By senior Thai officials when he visited the capital of Bangkok for a regional summit. On the sidelines of the summit, he met Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi For discussion Post -Earthquaked rehabilitation Efforts and promoting bilateral relations.

China was one of the first to send relief supplies and relief workers to help the recovery voltage in Myanmar, 100 million yuan pledged (13.7 million dollars) The value of supplies. The United States, a major player in direct efforts to provide assistance after Nargis, pledged a Relatively modest 9 million dollars In the human donations of the southeastern nation, US President Donald Trump followed The decision to reduce external aid.

The magic attack with other Asian leaders in the wake of the earthquake may provide an unexpected silver correlation with the Military Council to gain some charity in the upcoming elections.

“Supporting the elections hosted by the military council equals the support of the democratic transition,” Chaudhry said, adding that foreign countries may see that they are the military council “moving towards a kind of civil government, although the reality is completely different.”

The promised elections were widely criticized as a trick to keep the army in power through agents, given that dozens of political parties have been banned. Min Ong Hinging It is said He said at a summit last Friday that the elections will continue despite the disaster.