Guests attend mixing and walk across the atrium during spring meetings at the International Monetary Fund at the International Monetary Fund headquarters in Washington, DC, on April 24, 2025.
Jim Watson AFP | Gety pictures
After years of the epidemic, supply, energy and inflation chains, there was a new topic that topped the agenda in the spring meetings of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund this year: the customs tariff.
The International Monetary Fund has set a tone by launching the week with the issuance of its latest economic expectations, which reduced growth expectations for weand UK and Many Asian countries. While economists, Central Banking and Politicians participated in the scenes of behind the scenes, many are trying to know whether the trade tensions between China and the United States are We are – or Maybe not Cooling.
Policy makers from the European Central Bank that CNBC spoke to this week on a large -scale tone, indicating that they are He saw interest rates continuing to decline And some of the difficult risks Inflation is the euro area. However, he stressed all the current high levels of uncertainty, the need to continue monitoring data, and the high risks to growth forecasts – as he repeated feelings by England Bank Governor Andrew Billy in his interview with CNBC Thursday.
These were some of the main messages of European Central Bank members this week.
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank
On inflation and monetary policy:
“We are heading towards our goal (inflation) during the year 2025, so that the repeated process is to the right path that we are close to finishing. But we have shocks, as you know, and shocks will be a retreat from the gross domestic product. It is a negative shock to the request.”
The net effect on inflation depends on what Counter -measures In the end, Europe is taken. Then we have to take into account (German) Financial payment Through defensive investments, by the infrastructure fund. “
“We have seen successive movements, as you know, advertisement (From the United States definitions), Then a StopThen some exemptions. So we must be very aware … either we are cut off, either we stop, but we will rely on data to the extreme. “
On market movements:
“When we made our expectations, we expected that … the dollar would be estimated, the euro will decrease. This is not what we saw. There were some anti -bi -axius movements in different categories.”
“It is clear that the German market has been shocked in a positive way by the program soon by the German government, with a commitment to defense, with a commitment to a large fund to develop infrastructure.”
Klaas Knot, President of the Netherlands Bank
Understanding definition:
“If you look back for the past 14 years, in the early days of the epidemic, I think this was the uncertainty similar to what we have now.”
“In the short term, it is clear that the uncertainty that was created due to the inability to predict the acts of customs tariffs by the American government acts as a strong negative growth factor. Basically, uncertainty is like a tax without revenues.”
On the effect of inflation:
“In the short term, we will have less growth. We may also have a decrease in inflation. As we also see, the euro is estimated with low energy prices as well. So with a kind of negative uncertainty in the short -term factors, it will clearly lead to accelerating inflation.”
“But in the medium term, inflation expectations are not all clear. I think there are still these negative factors. But in the medium term, you may get revenge. You may get disabled global value chains, which may also be amplified in other parts of the world only.
In reducing the interest rate in June and market prices to reduce the prices of the European Central Bank in 2025:
“I am completely open to thinking. I think it is too early to actually occupy a position in June, whether it is another clip. It will completely depend on these expectations.”
“I will need to see a more organized analysis to influence the inflation file in front of us, and only then I can say whether the market is fair or if I do not.”
Robert Holsman, Ruler of the Austrian National Bank
About the need to wait for more data and news about the definitions:
“We have not seen this uncertainty now for years … unless the uncertainty decreases, through the right decisions, we will have to curb a number of our decisions, and therefore, we do not yet know in the direction that should be transferred to monetary policy in the best way.”
“Before looking at data in detail, the question is, what kind of political decisions will be taken? Will we have some increases in customs tariffs? Will we have strong increases in customs tariffs?
In reducing the interest rate in April from the European Central Bank:
“I think there is a wide consensus (on prices). But of course, on the margin, people differ.”
“My evaluation is that at this time, it has not yet been clear to what extent has been taken counter (tariffs). Because with counter -procedures in Europe, prices may have increased. Without counter -measures, price pressure is likely to be down. And at the present time, we don’t know the direction yet.”
In the direction of interest rates:
“I think that if the last noise on the arrangement (on trade) is correct, in this case, it is possible that it is more than the negative side than the upward trend in terms of prices. But this can be changed with different decisions and as a result, we may imagine even in the other direction.
“There may be other discounts this year, but the number is still great.”
Mārtiņš kazaks, the governor of the Bank of Latvia
On the chance of definitions:
“With all this, uncertainty and weakness, this is also the time of opportunities for Europe.”
“It is time for Europe to understand all aspects of being a great economic power and become a fully political and geopolitical power, and this requires all decisions that have not been fully implemented in the past.”
“This requires political will, political courage to make these decisions, strengthen the European economy and confirm its place in a global world.”
The market reaction to the definitions:
“Until now it appears to be relatively organized … But if one looks at the pre -effects of Europe, the financial markets operate in one way or another, we have not seen differences that explode or anything like that.”
“But with regard to the total scenarios, this uncertainty is very high in the sense that, given the potential results, multiple scenarios and their possibilities are very similar to the basic line scenario (tariff).”
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