Visitors look at the city horizon from a park in Kuala Lumpur on September 30, 2021.
Mohamed Rasvan AFP | Gety pictures
The emerging markets have found the same between a rock and a difficult place amid an escalating trade war, and it seems that they are forced to choose between China and the United States, but there is another way: they support themselves.
“Southeast Asian countries, including Malaysia, have to negotiate with the United States to reach a kind of soft -style spot,” CNBC told CNBC. “But at the same time, it does not prevent us from working with other countries – not to connect the United States, but in favor of ourselves.”
Southeast Asia is especially vulnerable to the escalating global trade war. Goldman Sachs reduced its growth forecast for Asian emerging markets, saying that the smaller economies towards export are the most exposed to identification disorders.
The bank’s GDP forecast is 2025 for Vietnam now 5.3 % – which is much less than the 6.5 % consensus estimates cited by Goldman. The bank expects Malaysia to grow by 3.8 % (compared to 4.7 %) next year, and Thailand expands by 1.5 % (compared to 2.7 %).
Southeast Asian countries were among The most difficult blow On the “liberation day” of US President Donald Trump, “Liberation Day.” They are scheduled to be subjected to definitions of 49 % after a A temporary reduction of 90 days To 10 % on all countries (China Bar).
This means that the region faces a difficult budget law because the United States is not its only strategic partner-as China also plays an important role in the goals of growth and medium-term development for many emerging Asian economies, according to Lavania Venkaturan, the chief economist in Asia Asia at OCBC.
Chinese President Xi Jinping Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia visited earlier this month In an attempt to strengthen Beijing Karkan to stability and strengthen relations within the region. He also called on the global south to “support the common interests of developing countries.”
It seems that it is happening.
UNCTAD Secretary -General Rebeca Greenpan told CNBC this month that trade within the region is growing.
She said: “One of the interesting indicators we have since last year, in this century, is that the southern southern trade may die faster than the northern northern trade.” “So, the acceleration of the southern and southern trade, as I think, will take a new dynamic due to the new commercial policy of the United States.”
Anwar Ibrahim, the Malaysian Prime Minister and the current head of ASEAN ASEAN, chanted this feeling, and called for more trade and greater economic integration within the region in a major speech at the ASEAN investment summit in early April.
No easy solutions
Although there are no “easy solutions”, emerging economies are expected to try to try different approaches in an attempt to alleviate the impact of American definitions, according to Lavania Vencaisswran, an economist in OCBC.
She said: “In the short term, the authorities will have to take advantage of the financial and monetary policy tools to provide the opposite support for the affected sectors of the economy. For the medium, the authorities realize the need to diversify trade and investment partners.”
She added that it is useful for the so -called “China +1” strategy to continue in the medium term. Many of the East Asian economies were directed at exports, benefiting from the strategy during the first Trump administration, as they obtained economic reinforcements as companies have turned production away from China to their beaches.
In Cambodia, for example, according to World Bank data, Cambodia exports of goods and services reached 55.5 % of its GDP in 2018, before Trump imposed his first Chinese tariff – by 2023, this number rose to 66.9 %.
Miguel Chanko, the chief economist in Asia emerging in the macroeconomic economy, agreed. Saying that these emerging markets are more attractive than China, such as long -term export manufacturing centers.
“It should be noted that this customs tariff does nothing to get rid of the competitiveness of the labor costs of the former EM Asia economies (opposite China), which will remain a large -term sale point to multinational companies.” “The new supply chains will not be created overnight.”
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