Economists warn of global recession

The escalating trade war between the United States and almost one of its major commercial partners has sparked a wave of predictions and concerns that global recession can be just around the corner.

The economists who spoke to CBC news say that one of them is almost inexpensive, Unless we see a large axis of the United States soon.

“I don’t know how we will avoid it,” Mark Zandy, chief economist in Modi analyzes, told CBC News. Power and politics on monday.

“This is a fairly dark scenario, whether for the United States or in extension, Canada and the rest of the world.”

In the wake of US President Donald Trump, he announced the sweeping of global definitions last week, JP Morgan brokerage has 60 percent, an increase of 40 percent at the end of March.

“We haven’t seen this type of introductory trade war in 100 years,” said Moshe Lander, the chief economist at the University of Concordia, indicating the date of the United States after the collapse of the stock market in 1929.

He said that these definitions have led to counterproductive when the commercial partners in Washington took revenge on Washington.

“One entry and we are talking”

The recession is traditionally defined as two consecutive quarterly losses in the country’s gross domestic product. Tu Noguyen, Economist at RSM Canada, says in the global recession, this loss will occur through multiple economies around the world.

She said that there is no “specific stone” definition for the number of countries that should be in turmoil, but with major economies including China and the European Union, facing both commercial uncertainty amid a heavy American tariff, writing on the wall is clear.

“If the United States does not change its political position on the definitions … we expect to determine the recession in the next six months,” said Ngawin.

“I think it is reasonable to say that we enter one while we are talking.”

Zandy predicts that the United States will begin to feel the recession by June or July if Trump “does not find the slope.”

He said that the clash between the United States and China, “the largest of the planets on this planet with orders,” is one of the biggest obstacles.

After China match the Trump tariff, it imposed more – which means that when these recent definitions begin on Wednesday, imports from China will be 104 percent.

“If both countries continue to raise their customs tariffs for TAT, we will end up with a little trade between the two countries and the repercussions of this will be very difficult to overcome it,” Zandy said.

Global recession against patriotism

The global recession does not feel equal in all countries. For example, during the 2008 global financial crisis, Canada has gone through a period of low economic activity, but it “is fine, all the things that have been considered,” Nguin said.

However, the position of Canada in this discomfort does not look good.

Andrew Decaboa, the main economist in the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, says that although Canada seemed to be spared due to a tariff last weekand “The truth is, if the United States is slipping into recession, then Canada and Mexico will inevitably feel the worst impact, given the integration of our economies.”

Watch | Definitions can lead to “economic nuclear winter”:

Exactly how global customs tariffs will affect GDP or the labor market in Canada, it will not be clear for several months, although March witnessed a decrease of 33,000 jobs amid customs tariff concerns, which reflects growth at the end of last year.

But economists expect that with global definitions, goods make goods less easy and more expensive, consumers will move on purchases and investments, reduce demand and increase the possibility of demobilization.

“The demobilization operations have already started, especially in the sectors closely related to the American supply chains, such as cars, and we started to see this reflected in the labor market data,” said Decapoa.

It will follow the low employment and more companies that pass under the recession, which makes it difficult to get an increase or change of jobs. Meanwhile, life will become more expensive.

“The model American family will have to spend $ 2100 (the United States) for more than a year to buy the same goods as they are today,” Zandy said.

There is still a way to avoid global recession, but that depends on significantly reducing the United States or eliminating its definitions completely.

“This slope must come to avoid this from the United States,” Ngawin said, adding that the speed is the essence.

“The more this continues, the more demobilization occurs, the more factories because they cannot work under the rules of new definitions.”

The Trump administration has set talks with South Korea and Japan, and Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni is scheduled to visit next week. But now, all definitions of the country are advancing.

“The important thing to remember is that this is completely caused by the United States.” “It is not something we were exposed to blind like PandeMic Covid-19, for example. But it has an effect on the whole world.”