Economists

President Donald Trump says that Definitions It will make the United States “richEconomists said these wealth is likely to be much lower than the White House expected.

Economists said this final amount could have significant repercussions on the American economy, the country’s debts and legislative negotiations on the tax cutting package.

On Sunday, White House Trade Advisor, Peter Navarro, estimates that the tariff tariffs will raise about $ 600 billion per year and 6 trillion dollars over a decade. A car tariff will add $ 100 billion a year, He said On “Fox News Sunday”.

Navarro submitted the projection of the United States Advertising More definitions against American commercial partners on Wednesday.

Economists expect the Trump administration tariff policy to generate a much lower amount of revenue from Navarro’s claims. Some project will be less than half revenues.

Moody Zandi, the chief economist in Moodyz, said nearly $ 600 billion to $ 700 billion per year “not even in the world of possibilities.” “If you get 100 billion dollars to 200 billion dollars, you will be very lucky.”

The White House refused to respond to a request for suspension from CNBC about customs tariff revenues.

White House He thinks 20 % tariffs on most imports, Washington Post mentioned Tuesday. President Trump Float This idea is on the path of the campaign. The Trump administration may eventually choose a different policy, such as the customs tariff for each country based on commercial barriers and others for each country.

Economists said the 20 % tariff rate appears to be in line with Navarro’s revenue expectations.

US imported About $ 3.3 trillion of goods in 2024. Apply a 20 % tariff rate to all of these imports will lead to about 660 billion dollars of annual revenue.

“This is certainly that this is the mental mathematics that Peter Navarro is making – and that mental mathematics exceeds some decisive steps,” said Erney Tedeschi, director of the economy at a laboratory of Yale and the chief economist in the Economic House of Economists at the White House.

This is because estimating accurate revenues must explain the many economic effects of the drawings in the United States and around the world. They said that these effects are united to reduce revenues.

A wide tariff of 20 % will raise about $ 250 billion annually (or 2.5 trillion dollars over a decade) when taking these effects into consideration, according to TEDESCI, citing the YALE Budget Laboratory analysis Publishing Monday.

Economists said there are ways to raise more amounts – but will include higher definition rates. For example, the customs tariff will raise approximately 50 % about $ 780 billion annually, According to To economists at the Peterson Institute for International Economy.

Even this optimistic assessment: It does not explain the low economic growth in the United States due to revenge or the effects of negative growth from the same definitions, as they wrote.

Customs duties in general Lifting consumer prices. The wide customs tariff will cost 20 % the average consumer between $ 3400 to $ 4,200 a year, according to Yale’s budget laboratory.

Economists said that consumers will normally buy less than imported goods if they cost them more. They said that the low demand means fewer imports and less customs tariffs than those imports.

Robert McClyland, his oldest colleague at the Urban Tax Policy Center, said it is also expected to lead to “reduced economic activity.”

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For example, it is possible that American companies that do not pass the costs of customs tariffs for consumers through high prices, are likely to have profits suffering (and income taxes decreased). Economists have said that consumers may retract spending, more company profits and tax revenues. They said that companies that take financial success may withdraw workers.

Foreign countries are also expected to be divided from their definitions on American products, which would harm companies that make products abroad. Other countries may face economic shrinkage, which reduces demand for American products.

“If you get a 20 % tariff rate, you will get hard stagnation, and this will undermine your financial situation,” Zandy said.

Economists said that there is also a certain level of non -compliance with the customs tariff policy, and carved some countries, industries or products. For example, when the White House imposed customs duties in China in February, it is Examinated indefinitely “De mimineris” imports of $ 800 or less.

Economists said the Trump administration may also transfer some customs tariff revenues to push some of the parties affected by a commercial war.

President Trump did this in his first term: The government sent $ 61 billion of “relief” payments to American farmers who faced retaliatory tariff, which was almost (92 %) of tariff revenues on Chinese goods from 2018 to 2020, According to To the Council of Foreign Relations.

Economists said that the customs tariff will also get a short period of life, which reduces the effect of its potential revenues. They said they are issued through an executive order and can be easily retracted, whether by President Trump or a president in the future.

“There is no possibility that these definitions will continue for 10 years,” Zandy said. “If they continue until next year, I will be very surprised.”

The expansion of the 2017 tax reduction law signed by President Trump will cost $ 4.5 trillion over a decade, According to To the tax institution. Trump also called for other tax exemptions such as lack of taxes, additional work wages or social security benefits, and a tax deduction for the benefit of American car loan.

Economists said that the definitions do not cover the full cost of such a package, so Republican legislators will have to find discounts elsewhere or increase the country’s debts.