US President Donald Trump speaks to media members on the first air force before landing in West Palm Beach, Florida, United States, March 28, 2025.
Kevin Lamark Reuters
The uncertainty in the new policy and definitions of the Trump administration collects a quick look at the American economy in the latest quick update of CNBC.
The rapid update, expected from 14 economists of GDP and inflation, witnesses a growth in the first quarter in the registration of poverty by 0.3 % compared to 2.3 % mentioned in the fourth quarter of 2024. It will be the weakest growth since 2022 with the emergence of the economy.
Meanwhile, the basic inflation PCE, the Federal Reserve Bank, will remain stuck in about 2.9 % for most year before resuming its decline in the fourth quarter.
Behind Dour GDP expectations are new evidence that decrease in consumer and business morale appears in a real economic activity. The Ministry of Commerce said on Friday that real consumer spending, which was modified in February, increased by only 0.1 %, after a decrease by -0.6 % in January. The economy has decreased procedures, its view of growth to only 0.2 % in this quarter of 4 % in the fourth quarter.
“The signs of slowdown in hard activity data became more convincing, following an exacerbation earlier in feelings,” Barclays wrote during the weekend.
Another factor: an increase in imports (which is offered from GDP) that appears to be flowing in the United States before the definitions.
The good news is that the impact of import must be transcended and two of the 12 economists who were included in the survey to the negative growth in the first quarter. Nothing expects consecutive places of economic shrinkage. Oxford Economics, which has the lowest Q1 estimate by -1.6 %, expects clouds from imports but is witnessing a recovery in GDP in the second quarter to 1.9 %, because these imports will eventually end up growing when they are calculated in stock or sales measures.
The recession risks a rise
On average, most economists expect a gradual recovery, as the average GDP in the second quarter reached 1.4 %, the third quarter of 1.6 % and the last quarter of the year to 2 %.
This risk is an economy with only 0.3 % blood growth can easily slip into negative lands. With a new tariff that is scheduled to come this week, not everyone is sure to recover.
“Although our primary line does not show a decrease in the real GDP, due to the growing global trade war and a fence for jobs and financing, there is a good opportunity for the decline in GDP in the first quarter until the second of this year,” said Mark Zandy of Modi’s analyzes. “It is possible that the recession will be if the president does not start to back down from definitions by the third quarter.”
MOODY is looking for the growth of the Q1 anemia of only 0.4 % rising to 1.6 % by the end of the year, which is still less than the direction.
The stubborn inflation will complicate the FBI’s ability to respond to the growth of reporting. Core PCE is expected to be 2.8 % this quarter, as it rose to 3 % in the next quarter and almost remains at this level until it decreases to 2.6 % per year from now.
While the market seems to be dependent on price cuts, the federal reserve may find it difficult to justify until inflation begins to decrease more persuasive at the end of the year.
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