Citigroup, Inc. (C)

summary

Expectations for the year 2025: The uncertainty in the customs tariff, the market response to the president’s “Liberation Day” advertisements on April 2, 2025 was severe. With the Tahrir Day, the S&P 500 index has already decreased by 8 % of its highest level ever in mid -February. In fact, the first three months of the year balance with a wave of enthusiasm in terms of cancellation of potential regulation and low taxes with increased anxiety regarding commercial policy still in the field of trade. The details of the liberation day were shocked by investors and sent the market to widespread panic. From the end of 5,671 on April 2, the S&P 500 decreased to 4,983 by April 8 – a decrease of 12 %. Investors were afraid that the proposed definitions along with the reprisal tariffs of commercial partners could place the American economy and perhaps the global economy in stagnation. With the cutting of stocks, the expected safe treasury trade in the US Treasury Market was not achieved. Instead, the cabinet revenues rose, the dollar-signs were placed that global investors were coming out of the chapters of the American assets that were previously seen as rocky. The market has been bounced since then, as of mid-April, the S&P 500 was trading near 5,425-by about 8 % from April 8, but it is still less than 12 % of its highest level ever. The administration seeks to hold deals to reduce customs tariffs with many nations. Various countries and product categories have been granted exemptions, usually for a few months. This has created a position on the flow where the exact effect of all definitions is almost impossible. A single -size blanket tariff will enable companies to assess the expected effects and continue to plan business. Unstable and constantly changing the customs tariff agenda causes companies and consumers to wait while waiting for clarity. The first quarter started optimistic, but it ended with the cold of the investor, which was not dissipated in the second quarter. The customs duties have affected the markets, and have removed the morale of the consumer. Definitions are not the only factor in the economy. After leaving the first quarter, the American economy is still on a solid basis, given the status of healthy employment and the arrow profit growth prospects this year. The economy will need this basis as the country and the world adapt to the developing trade war. Next year in the year 2023, the stock market increased by more than 20 % on the signs that inflation has decreased, and the Federal Reserve will surround its price -running campaign, and the supply chain will be normalized. In 2024, the shares increased more than 20 % again while enhancing economic growth, profit growth, and job growth remained delicious. It started in 2025 with uncertainty, but also optimism that the new administration will be more suitable for business and will quickly move to low taxes. Investors have turned into a pessimism primarily on the policy of customs tariffs, but also concerns about potential ripple effects throughout the heart of Doug’s functional discounts and rearranging international relations with both friends and enemies. In waste from 2024, inflation is still stopping in the “last mile” between 3 % and 2 %. Over the past three years, investors have been proportional to monetary policy as the Federal Reserve sought to reduce inflation. In 2025, the concentration of investors has turned into fiscal policy, given the administration’s pledge to reduce taxes. The main geopolitical event continued in 2023-war between Israel and Hamas-until 2024. It appears that the soft exchange program and the uncomfortable peace treaty that was reached in 2025 is abandoned. President Trump discovers that ending the war in Ukraine will not be easy. Europe has tightened its intention to defend Ukraine in the wake of Mr. Trump’s most able to Treat Mr. Russia Vladimir Putin, US data related to Greenland, Canada and Panama. Economic activity in China, the second largest economy in the world, has improved its lowest level after birth, but is still mixed. The ambitious financial motivation program was kept secret to stimulating economic recovery due to demographic factors. The three -way definitions imposed by the United States and China are threatening against each other by ending all trade among the world’s largest economists. The two sides may be able to negotiate the low tariff rates of these impossible levels, but it is possible that any final tariff is prohibited. The global total environment seemed to be moderate for American stocks. Definitions on the day of liberation and mutual response to the American definitions of commercial partners threaten to launch a difficult and long trade war. Although some of the challenges facing American stocks in 2025 reflect the disruption of the new policies that come out of Washington, we are not currently expecting that policy transformations in the economy to recession. Trade and industrial economics measures – including manufacturing PMI, permanent commodity orders, and industrial production – have managed but consistent with continuous growth, if silent. Feelings indicators such as small business confidence have increased in the election of Donald Trump, but have decreased since then. Feelings are an indication that is not reliable in future activity and can turn quickly. Fatigue continued with inflation and high financing rates in consumer confidence in 2024. The high and risky definitions are exposed to high inflation, which may already decline professional consumers from large ticket purchases. The customs tariff threatens multi -year progress in reducing inflation, but it can have an inherent impact on the total price trends depending on future negotiations between countries and also on companies’ readiness to absorb instead of transferring high costs. We expect the American economy to continue to expand in 2025, and remains on the path of narrow growth in line with exposed population growth and higher productivity. After the growth of GDP by 2.9 % year -on -year in 2023 and 2.8 % of GDP of 2024 (both revised), Argus, as of mid -April 20205, designs the growth of 2025 GDP by 1.3 %. This goal was recently reduced from 2.0 %. The Federal Reserve succeeded in reducing inflation growth, although reaching the goal of the Federal Reserve by 2 % has proven to be difficult. The federal funds rate was 4.25 % -4.5 % as of April 2025, and it did not change from the end of the year 2024, while the PCE’s primary inflation index increased by 2.8 % on an annual basis. Based on the Reformes of the Federal Reserve from March 2025, we are still expecting price discounts in 2025, loaded to the second half. ARGUS currently expects short -term revenues to decrease gradually from current levels and long areas to expand their relative installment to short yields. Early April, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned that President Trump’s sweeping tariff could reflect progress in inflation and urges “stagnation”. These federal fears can keep the margin in 2025. At the sector, the main engines of 2025 are likely to include strong growth in health care profits and performance improvement from sectors (energy, materials and industries) that took place on 2024 profits. Energy prices have been volatile in recent years. We are looking for a better balance in the request equation to order to maintain energy p