China is looking for Central Asia, where the commercial risks elsewhere are on the horizon

Analysts say that the rising trade war with the United States has prompted Beijing to expand its ties with Central Asia, as the state -backed companies are looking to replace American imports and reinstating exports.

It seems that it is an attempt to reduce the tariff fears, Chinese government media on February 10 -On the day that Beijing slapped a 10 % initial tariff on US energy imports-I reported a trip to the state to Kyrgyzstan, where dozens of Chinese companies traveled to the country adjacent to explore the opportunities for partnership.

“It is expected that the ongoing trade war is expected to deepen economic cooperation with Central Asian countries,” said Yunus Sherifly, a colleague of China’s Global Project, by diversifying export methods, increasing participation in regional communication projects, and expanding investment in infrastructure.

China has created itself as a pioneering commercial partner and a foreign investor of the five Central Asian countries – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan – considered a major bloc as its main gateway to it Belt and Road InitiativeA major program for the infrastructure announced by President Xi Jinping during An official visit to Kazakhstan in 2013.

In an important presentation of the commitment, Beijing hosted the first personal summit with Central Asian leaders in 2023, where Xi pledged to upgrade the bilateral links of investment and trade. The coalition leaders are expected to wander again in June The next summit in Astana, Kazakhstan.

However, the United States has long been marginalized in the region, despite Washington’s goal to absorb the region in its field of influence as mentioned in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs strategy entitled ” “The United States Strategy for Central Asia 2019-2025: progress and economic prosperity.”

But her efforts have decreased.

“The Central Asia is still a diverse area that does not receive great attention in the United States,” said Curtis Chen, a former American ambassador to the Asian Development Bank and his colleague at the Milkin Institute.

“More than half of the battle for influence appears personally (and) this is something from China and Chinese companies, often supported the state, knowing well, and Americans may be subjected to severe pressure to match.”

It is worth noting that trade in two directions between Central Asia and China, while in a fixed climb, is still relatively lower levels compared to the total. Goods trade between China and the United States for $ 582.4 billion.

He led Kazakhstan, a vast steward nation with rich energy and agricultural resources, at $ 43.8 billion last year, before that, before that. A goal of up to 40 billion dollars In the annual trade in two directions with China by 2030-a pledge presented by the country’s president, Casem Gomart Tukayev, in 2023.

Kyrgyzstan came next for $ 22.7 billion in trade with China, then Uzbekistan with $ 13.8 billion, Turkmenistan for $ 10.6 billion and Tajikistan at $ 3.86 billion.

China’s imports from Kyrgyzstan increased more than 30 times in 2024 and more than 60 times in the first two months of 2025. Officials from Kyrgyzstan and China discussed at a meeting earlier this month to promote bilateral trade to up to up to up to up to up 45 billion dollars by 2030 In addition to plans to accelerate the construction of a new checkpoint and open new flights, according to local media reports in Kyrgyzstani.

In revenge against US President Donald Trump’s imposition of 20 % of the new customs tariffs on Chinese goods, Beijing slapped additional duties of up to 15 % on Coal, natural gasand Cotton, agricultural products From the United States

“Chinese companies can” can “double the imports of cotton from Uzbekistan and other Central Asian countries,” said Daniel Balzz, a research colleague at the College of International Studies. Although the contribution of cotton imports from the region may not match this from the United States, it may “reduce some effect.”

China has obtained 35 % of cotton imports from the United States as of 2024, according to data collected by a team of economists in Nomura, who expect Beijing to turn into other alternative sources.

The leading Chinese electric car maker BYD last month In conquest in Kazakhstan, This makes it the third of the Central Asian market, as the auto company made a foothold, in the aftermath of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.

The five Central Asian countries have preserved Neutral On the conflict Ukraine, refrain from supporting either Kyiv or MosCOW, a step seen By some as a cautious deportation From Moscow.

This feeling, Jeremy Chan, chief analyst at the Eurasia Group,and “Central Asian countries will grow increasingly to China – and away from Russia – to meet their commercial and investment needs.”