China feels an opportunity in the Trump cultural revolution

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In the last two weeks, I visited Beijing and Hong Kong. This visit showed that in today’s world, the United States is a revolutionary force – specifically, a reactionary force, while the supposed Communist China is the power of the present. In this regard, the European Union shares China. The rulers of China are like the way the world and China are going. The European Union is not satisfied. Her elites realize that her elites realize that she must change a lot. But they also prefer the world that US President Donald Trump is trying to destroy to the chaotic world that he is trying to create.

In order for the external person to extract any clear conclusions from a short visit to this vast country is heroic, if not fool. However, I visited the country at least once a year since 1993, regardless of the epidemic, has followed the development of the country’s economy closely and made a number of friends among the elite of its Western educated policy. China’s rise was far from the largest economic and political story in my life. Heroic or not, one must understand what Trump means for China and China to the world.

This, then, is what I learned.

First, the Chinese Contemporaries thought about turmoil in the United States today regarding their cultural revolution, which started almost 60 years ago. Mao Zedong used his position as a rebellion leader to wage war on bureaucratic and cultural elites in China. Trump also uses his strength as an elected leader of a rebellious movement to overthrow the bureaucratic and cultural elites of the United States. The intense hatred of the cultural revolution is widely shared among the older members of the Chinese elite today. They also don’t like Trump’s revolution.

Second, many of those who managed to escape from China in the 1980s and nineties of the last century were admired to become educated in Western universities, the elite of the values ​​they saw there and hope to see them as an integral part of their country. The rule of law, personal freedom and modern science seems to have great ideas for them. For these people, what is happening now in America is painful. Unfortunately, the United States betraying its principles is not unique in China.

Third, they realize that what is happening to the United States has clear fluctuations in their country. Almost everyone has emerged after Trump’s signature has become worthless. The man who tries to demolish the Canadian economy will not be a reliable friend of anyone. Therefore, alliances that the United States will need to balancing China in its neighborhood, or it is likely to be very fragile. This applies even to Japan and South Korea, not to mention other neighbors. In this environment, China, the main commercial power of Asia and the Pacific, as well as the rapidly increasing military force, must only be controlled by the region, but also exceeds that. Even Europe, which is concerned and publicly abandoned by Russia by the United States, will seek a more friendly relationship with China. “America first” must mean Trump America alone.

Fourth, Dibsic gave the Chinese a great boost. They believe that the United States is no longer able to prevent its rise. A good friend made it clear to me that Shi Jinping has three goals: system stability; High technology; And an increasing economy. They are more confident in the second today than they were a few years ago. This is not only Deepseek, but also about Chinese hegemony over the “clean energy sector”. Many believe that the demographic challenges in China must destroy the economy. But the problem at the present time is very few good jobs, not a few workers. It is the problem of demand, not a possible offer problem. This will remain the case for a long time, due to the surplus of rural workers.

Fifth, this demand problem is already huge, as I argued in the pastBut it is not insoluble. In my discussions in China, the focus, as for many years, was in relatively short -term issues, such as the weakness of the real estate sector, the impact of the decrease in home prices on the budgets of living families, and the consequences of these financial changes to the local authority, Reduced retail prices. All this mentions a economy in Japan in the afternoon. However, this is actually a structural, not patrol. The basic reality is that, as happened previously with Japan and South Korea, the ability to invest wide savings in China (More than 40 percent of GDP remains) It has now collapsed productive. One of the evidences of this is the huge jump in the rate of additional capital production – the rate of investment rate to the rate of economic growth. (See Plans.)

During the first part of this century, the demand hole was partially filled with a huge running surplus. Then, when this became impossible, after the financial crisis, the biggest hole that appeared after that was filled with a significant increase in investment in real estate and infrastructure. The former is already falling. But more investment in manufacturing guarantees only greater ability, and therefore protection that aims to the inevitable storms of Chinese exports. Thus, Europeans will follow the example of Trump. In fact they will do that because From converting China’s exports to its markets, which will follow its example.

Nowadays, Chinese policy makers refer to “investing in consumption”. It is an interesting concept. However, the main requirements are to reduce the savings rate by converting income towards families, developing the social safety network and increasing public consumption.

In short, the Chinese believe that they can survive in the Trump attack. In fact, many believe that it may help them, by destroying the credibility and perceptions of its competence. This does not mean that China is sure to win. However, as usually for large salads, the most challenges in the home, not outside.

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