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The European Central Bank’s policy maker said later this month that the comprehensive identification risks of US President Donald Trump raises a “negative shock to negative demand” in the euro area.
In an interview with Financial Times, the governor of the Central Bank of Greece, Yannis Stornarras, warned that the global trade war that is looming on the horizon is likely to weigh the economic growth of Europe. He said: “The noticeable negative impact on growth can lead to a much weaker activity than expected, which leads to withdrawing inflation without our goals.”
Stornarras, a member of the tallest members of the European Central Bank, warned that the euro area faced shock at one time when expectations for growth were “humble” already and inflation was on the right path to fulfill the average goal of the European Central Bank of 2 percent. The European Central Bank was appointed to take the following interest rate decision on April 17.
Trump announced last week that Washington would impose a A 20 % tariff On most of the European Union imports.
The United States is the largest market for the individual export of commodity in the European Union, representing approximately 21 percent of the total bloc’s exports in 2024. While duties likely to require demand in the United States, economists are also concerned that the high tariff against China may lead to a redirect from Chinese Chinese goods to Europe that can reduce inflation more.
Before announcing the Trump tariff last week, the European Central Bank was It indicates a possible hiatus In interest discounts because it adopted more falcons after reducing borrowing costs for the sixth time since mid -2014 to 2.5 percent last month. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said in March that inflation in the euro zone may rise by half a percentage point in a commercial war due to “the” European Union’s reprisal measures and the weakest of the euro exchange rate. “
Stournaras is facing a problem in this view, on the pretext that “definitions are definitely a shrinkage management” of the euro area. He stressed that the protective steps of the United States were “worse than expected” and established an “unprecedented” degree than “uncertainty in global politics” that weighs economic activity.
Analysts and investors said that Trump’s introductory ads have increased the possibility of a quarter of a quarter -point reduction later this month. Jpmorgan, which previously expected the European Central Bank to retain steady rates by 2.5 percent in April, changed its point of view on Friday and is now expecting another reduction in a quarter of a point, followed by two others in June and September. Goldman Sachs economists also said on Friday that the reduction in April was “very possible now.”
When asked if the situation is dangerous enough to justify the rate reduction of 50 points, Stournaras refused to comment.
Although it was difficult to “assess the effect of definitions specifically”, the negative impact on the growth of the euro area “could be between 0.5 and 1 percentage. In March, the European Central Bank reduced its growth forecast for the year 2025 for the euro area to only 0.9 percent.
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