Canada elections: Puritors of opinion polls, but the liberal Carney party is still ready to win

With the hills of election day in Canada on Monday, the support of the two main parties in rapprochement in the polls began, yet the race appears to be the liberal party that will lose it.

The Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carne is now leading the Conservative Party 42 percent to 39 percent on average, according to CBC poll trackerDecrease from nearly seven percentage that the liberals were at the beginning of the campaign last month. Researchers say that some polls show thinner progress, but the liberal party still seems ready to win.

“Because of the distribution of voting at the national level, there is little distortion, contrary to what you will see in the United States with the electoral college,” said Sebastian Dalir, CEO of East Canada, Lieger, a major opinion poll.

But he added, “Even if the national vote is linked, it may mean that the liberals have won more” in the seats of the House of Commons, allowing them to form a government and grant Mr. Carney for a full period as prime minister.

Opinion polls can also reduce the national support of the Conservative Party, led to forbidBut it may not be enough to overcome the feature of liberals.

Conservative Party He won the popular vote In the past two jackets, but it is still lost in front of the liberals every time. Conservatives can survey well at the national level, but they are still shorting because their support tends to focus in fewer parliamentary regions.

Conservatives have tremendous support in the western provinces in Saskatchewan and Alberta, but this reaches a relatively few seats because their inhabitants are less than the most competitive provinces.

In the electoral system in the “First Past” in Canada, in which the candidate who gets the largest number of votes – but not necessarily a majority – wins a lower level of support in a greater number of regions is more advantageous.

The polls in Ontario and Kepeck, which contain more seats than the rest of the country combined, shows a much stronger liberal advantage. In Ontario, the liberals have seven degrees on average, while in Quebec, it is closer to 15 degrees Celsius.

Just a few months ago, the liberal victory in the elections seemed very far away.

The Canadians were tired of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his liberal party after a decade, and the conservatives were more than 20 percentage points in the polls.

But after President Trump launched a trade war against Canada and began to threaten to raise the nation as the “51st State” in America, the public feelings began to rotate. Once Mr. Carne, Mr. Trudeau was replaced as president of the party in March, the reflection of luck gained momentum as voters saw Mr. Carney as a candidate more able to confront Mr. Trump.

Besides the horse race, the polls on the issues worried by Canadians have turned more than the election day have turned to the day of the elections, but still indicate a advantage of Mr. Carney.

In recent weeks, investigative studies show that focusing on Mr. Trump has faded, while the economy and the ability to bear costs have become more prominent issues. Through various opinion polls, Mr. Carney and the liberal party had the advantage of the United States and Canada’s relations.

But Mr. Carney, with his experience as head of the central banks in Canada and Britain, is well respected in economic issues: a large number of Canadians in Abacus data poll recently The liberal party said it was the best ability to develop the economy.

At the beginning of the campaign, more Canadians said they were voting based on the party that they felt would be the best convenience for Mr. Trump, according to Playing by ABACUS data. In the most modern surveys, the majority of Canadians say they are more interested in any party that can make a change in the direction of the country.

But while the majority of voters who give the priority of change prefer conservatives, one in four still prefer liberals, according to Apacos, although the party is in power over the past decade.

“This tells me that Mark Carney did enough to refer to these voters and calm them as a sufficient change from Justin Trudeau,” said David Colito, founder and CEO of Abakos data. “The way he deals with both leadership and this campaign was satisfactory enough for people who may have wanted to change. This, I think, is the reason they are adhering to the leader.”