Can Sonic 3 beat Disney’s Lion King Prequel at the box office?

Box office struggles seem to be all the rage in the wake of last year’s Barbenheimer phenomenon, with both “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” becoming huge hits. Earlier this year, we saw “The Garfield Movie” and “Furiosa” face off, but… The whole Garfuiosa thing didn’t get any real attention, to put it mildly. More recently, “Gladiator II” and “Wicked” gave us the double bill that was Glicked, which was another huge hit. And to end the year, we have Paramount’s “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” competing with Disney’s prequel “Mufasa: The Lion King.” Although I don’t have a nice nickname for this showdown (Mufasic?), the theaters will be the winners here.

Currently, it seems that “Sonic 3” is beating “Mufasa”. As of this writing, Jeff Fowler’s third live-action “Sonic” film is looking to debut at least $55 million, while Barry Jenkins’ 2019 “Lion King” prequel is eyeing around $50 million at Opening. Weekends, per early tracking (via Delivery time). However, in both cases, those early expectations may be low.

People at Box office theory “Sonic 3” currently grosses between $62 and $71 million. This would bring it in line with 2022 “Sonic the Hedgehog 2” grossed $72 million in its debut, a record for a video game movie.. For what it’s worth, the film finished its global run with $405 million worldwide against a $90 million budget. This was a significant increase from the first film, which grossed just over $300 million in 2020.

The outlet “Mufasa” also grosses between $55 and $65 million domestically. That’s certainly a big drop from the ridiculous $191.7 million opening posted in 2019. “Lion King,” which eventually grossed a staggering $1.66 billion worldwide It became one of the biggest films of all time. But that was then, and this is now. The theatrical landscape has changed. However, having an aperture in this range is not something worth worrying about. With a weak January slate, both films are well positioned to continue working for weeks to come as well.

“Sonic the Hedgehog 3” follows Sonic, Knuckles, and Tails as the trio unites against a powerful new enemy in the form of Shadow, forcing Team Sonic to search for an unlikely ally in hopes of stopping Shadow and protecting Earth. Keanu Reeves (“John Wick”) joins the cast to voice Shadow, with the rest of the core cast returning from the first two films, including Jim Carrey as Dr. Robotnik. On the one hand, this film will be received by the audience, Because the early wave of reactions to “Sonic 3” promised to please fans once again.

Meanwhile, “Mufasa: The Lion King” focuses on Rafiki as he narrates the legend of Mufasa to Kiara, daughter of Simba and Nala. Told in flashback, the story presents Mufasa as an orphaned cub who meets a sympathetic lion named Taka, the heir to the royal line. Jenkins previously won Best Picture for Moonlight, and being behind the camera seems to be his greatest asset. For the money the first film made, it was not well received by critics.

As far as “Sonic” goes, it sounds like money in Paramount’s bag. The studio kept the budget reasonable, and the audience was there. Even if this movie meets expectations again, it should still reach $400 million worldwide. If January is so slow and the crowd loves Shadow, there’s no telling how big this will be.

As for Mufasa, there’s something to be said for being original The Lion King was one of Disney’s biggest hits of the 1990s It remains a fan favorite to this day. If Jenkins delivers the goods, even if the opening weekend is relatively quiet, he could easily get out. Let’s not forget that Jon Favreau’s 2019 film made more than $1.1 billion of its money overseas. Even if the prequel makes a third of what the sequel did, we’re looking at a $550 million global hit. Either way, theaters will be happy to get that money through the holiday season and into the choppy waters of January.

“Sonic the Hedgehog 3” and “Mufasa: The Lion King” will hit theaters on December 20, 2024.