Can Nosferatu save vampire movies at the box office this Christmas?

Robert Eggers earned instant star status in the horror world with his first feature film, “The Witch,” in 2016. Now, after making a detour into the world of big-budget historical epic action with “The Northman,” the acclaimed director is back. With a new horror movie in the form of “Nosferatu,” Eggers’ long-awaited new take on F.W. Murnau’s 1922 vampire classic. The question is, can this gothic vampire tale take a big enough bite out of the Christmas box office?

Focus Features’ Nosferatu is currently eyeing an opening weekend of $12-16 million per month. Box office theory. But that’s only part of the equation here. The film will be shown in theaters on Christmas Day, which falls on Wednesday this year. Like a lot “Moana 2” had a record-breaking five-day run over ThanksgivingEggers’ newest company will have a long weekend to make money. So, if we assume the film performs similarly well on Wednesday and Thursday, we should easily be looking at north of $20 million by the following Monday morning. How interested will external audiences be? This is also a big question mark.

The real thing to pay attention to here is the fact that vampire movies have been toxic at the box office lately. last year, Universal had two major flops with the Dracula films “Renfield” and “The Last Voyage of the Demeter.” Both are very different from the mythical vampire, but both also fail to connect with audiences. The studio released another vampire flop earlier this year with “Abigail” which grossed just $42.7 million worldwide against a budget of $28 million despite receiving very strong reviews.

granted, “Abigail” finds new life now that it’s available to streambut that doesn’t change the fact that vampires are, apparently, a hard sell to modern moviegoers. Or, at the very least, the vampirism on display is not enough to motivate people to leave the house en masse. Maybe, just maybe, Eggers can change this narrative.

“Nosferatu” is described as a gothic tale of an obsession between a haunted young woman and a terrifying vampire who is infatuated with her, causing untold horror in its wake. Leading the stellar ensemble is Bill Skarsgård (“It”) as Count Orlok, with Nicholas Hoult (“Juror #2”), Lily-Rose Depp (“The Idol”), Aaron Taylor-Johnson (“Kraven the Hunter”) and Emma Corrin (“Deadpool & Wolverine) and Willem Dafoe (Spider-Man: No Way Home) round out the group.

Another issue we have not yet discussed is the intense competition for the holiday window. Must be families He focused heavily on “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” and “Mufasa: The Lion King” during the same period.. Also scheduled to arrive on Christmas Day are A24’s Oscar favorite “Babygirl,” James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic “A Complete Unknown,” and Amazon MGM’s “The Fire Inside.” There are plenty of options potential ticket buyers can choose from. The upside for Focus and Eggers is that January was fairly dry, meaning all of these films could continue to make good returns into the new year, with optimism in place.

Focus Features handles “Nosferatu,” just as it handled “The Northman.” This suggests that the studio would love to be involved with Robert Eggers’ work, if only that ‘The Northman’ ($69 million worldwide / $90 million budget) was one of 2022’s biggest flops. However, perhaps the focus is like being in Eggers’ work at a certain price point. “Nosferatu” is considered a cheaper film. I’d be shocked if a studio was willing to give it a budget of over $50 million. However, if it costs more than that, the film should be a hit on a very high level beyond hardcore horror fanatics. This is the danger.

Horror, in general, can be made cheaply, so when something does happen, it’s very profitable. When it doesn’t work? Losses are relatively small. When you start getting into that $50 million or more range, the math gets murkier. Let’s just hope the numbers work here. Focus can be used. The type Eggers needs. The vampire subspecies really needs it.

“Nosferatu” hits theaters on December 25, 2024.