Can a balance of balance in the civil war in Myanmar? | Military news

Bangkok, Thailand With Myanmar slowly recovering from the 7.7 earthquake that killed thousands in March, a greater disaster continues to form the future of the nation-this man of his manufacture.

Myanmar is still controlled by a civil war and after four years of fighting the military regime, he finds itself Suminating.

But the impact of the earthquake may be crucial to the conflict next year.

It was struck in the central epic area in Myanmar on March 28, The earthquake killed at least 3,649 peopleWith more than 5,000 injuries and 145 are still missing, according to numbers from the military government.

Seismic shock flattens homes, factories, Buddhist equipment, and residential blocks, and the bridges and roads that are torn in the nearby city of Mandala and Mandalay were dropped.

Tin Lin Ong, a former pioneer in the Myanmar army, who defected in the resistance movement in 2022, said he also disrupted the electricity supply that disrupted factories producing ammunition for the army.

Tin Lin Ong said the clear indication that the military supplies are extended, the recently captured bullets and artillery covers from government forces bearing the history of manufacturing this year.

“When I was in the army, we used to joking that some bullets were older than us,” he said.

“Now they are used immediately,” he said.

The reported interruption comes to the army’s ammunition production at a time when the army still controls in Myanmar is still surrounded by almost all aspects by the old ethnic armed groups and the latest armed opposition forces.

Nevertheless, the army maintains an iron grip on the main cities of the country and the main critical infrastructure.

The army has tried to reflect its losses through its random air strikes and burning villages in rural areas – the United Nations suspected campaign of war crimes.

More than the momentum of the army

The earthquake has been destroyed by the earthquake, and is still under military control, while most of the surrounding countryside is governed by a group of resistance militias – such as the Popular Defense Force (PDF) – which is loosely coordinated by the opposition national unity government (NG).

NUG has announced a truce in the areas affected by the earthquake until April 20, with the exception of “defensive operations”, however the army The operations continued.

According to The Nug, the air and air artillery attacks in Myanmar, which killed at least 72 civilians between the amazing earthquake on March 28 until April 8. Two other civilians, including a 13 -year -old girl, died because of the bombing of military aircraft on April 10, according to Myanmar reports now.

A PDF fighter said his existing headquarters, and asked not to be identified, that some rebel units had been able to relief efforts in central Myanmar, although their military opponents were benefiting from calm in the battle.

She said: “Since the earthquake, the army has used the Sagaing-Monywa road with more confidence due to the armistice.” But the PDF forces in Sagaing expect the fighting to intensify after the end of the April truce.

“PDF has more momentum of the army here,” she told Al Jazerera, adding that NUG is now “better coordination with ethnic armed organizations.”

“There will be more fighting in the coming months,” said Ko Ko Ji of the SAGAING PDF 3 battalion.

Regional security analyst Anthony Davis said it suspects that the earthquake will distract the army from its strategic goals, adding that most of the soldiers had resulted in their garrison rather than helping relief efforts.

“The army does not take a vacation to save people,” Davis said. “They will maintain air strikes, and wherever it is possible, the ground attacks to weaken PDF,” Davis said.

He said that the western state of Rakhine – which has not entered into a large extent of the earthquake – is still the most current battlefield.

There, the ARKAN Army (AA) clashed with the army forces around the state capital of Sittwe and Kyaukphyu, a main pipeline site that transported gas from all parts of Myanmar to China.

Davis said that AA had paid simultaneously from its lands in the west of the country and to the central areas of Myanmar in the areas of Magoy, Bago and Ayarwadi.

He added: “They are the swing player who can move this conflict significantly in one way or another.”

Used by an estimated 40,000 soldiers, AA has a proven record to defeat the forces of the military regime.

In the state of Kaya in East Myanmar, a great resistance leader said that the earthquake had emphasized the suffering of displaced societies that “bear the burden of continuous wars.”

“The side that wants to care for people can swing in public opinion and will succeed in the upcoming battles,” he said.

In the north and northwest, the army is on the back foot.

The Kachin Independence Army seized Indawa in the northern Sagaing area on April 7 after an eight -month siege, despite its announcement of the post -housing truce. The chin resistance forces recently dominated The town of Valm in West Myanmar Although they did not announce any ceasefire.

Political analyst Kiao Hasan Holing said the army is still fighting with the wake of the earthquake, and this may create holes for AA and others to seize more cities.

He said: “However, any such gains are likely to be gradual, as controlling the army and the ability to adapt for a long time, especially in areas such as Bago and Magoy, even under crises conditions are still important.”

“In the long term, the earthquake is unlikely to turn mainly the balance of power in Myanmar,” he said.

“Divine Intervention”

While the earthquake did not treat a decisive blow to military rule, the earthquake handed over psychological Shock to the generals of the regime.

In a country where astrology and myths are directed at the highest political decisions, many explain the natural catastrophe as cosmic reprimand against Myanmar’s military leadership.

“They see that this earthquake interferes with the divine – a penalty for the king’s mistakes. What I hear, do not blame him (the leader of the regime, Min Ong Helling) directly. But there are questions about his leadership and ability.”

According to Tin Lin Aung, the regime has ordered civil service employees all over the country with a nine times protective Buddhist recitation per day for nine consecutive days. The ninth number has auspicious symbolism in Buddhist traditions.

The increasing confusion within the ranks about the regime’s response to the earthquake – as they attract international aid and assistance, described the armistice, while continuing its attacks as well.

“They know that people hate them more and more, and their leader seems lost,” he said.

Richard Horusi, Senior Consultant in Myanmar in the International Crisis Group, said even if the Supreme Commander in Myanmar is the supreme military of General Min Aung Hinging rejects these supernatural interpretations of nature, the fact that his internal circle takes them seriously a real gap. Instead of causing an internal coup, he suggested that the earthquake as a bad omen is likely to indicate the erosion of Min Ong Hinging and the rise of open cash.

He said: “You move from there to people who feel that they can only ignore his orders and do something of their own because everyone agrees with them, and has no.”

Political analyst Kiao Hasan Haling said that some sources indicate that the beliefs in the earthquake as a porn in the collapse of military rule can be used to push the narration that the regime needs to “act decisively to restore control.”

He added that myths are just one of the many factors that constitute the army’s decisions in the conflict.

Horsi said that the earthquake “has caused massive damage to the primary fabric of Myanmar,” noting that the residents of Mandalay may face transportation due to extensive housing damage.

Given the size of the earthquake, it is possible that it will affect the civil war – “but in ways to predict it.”

She criticized her ineffective and incredible response to earthquake victims, as well as continuous attacks at the time of national emergency, the army’s bad reputation decreased further in the eyes and opponents of people.

Horsi said that strong ethnic armed groups participating in the conflict will be more interested in negotiating peace with the army after the earthquake.

“Even if you can get a spirit of settlement, which does not seem to be present,” a few of them believe that the army’s sincerity in adhering to any peace deal or a ceasefire.

“Whoever will believe that this paper,” Horsi said, when it is signed by an army that is considered “very illegal and unqualified.”