Are the Sudan war merged with the southern Sudanese conflicts? | Sudan’s war

New alliances in the danger of the civil war of Sudan, which sparked a regional conflict by drawing in the neighboring South Sudan, informed the analysts.

It was the biggest development An alliance in February Between the People’s Liberation Movement, Sudan (Splm-N) and the semi-military Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which has established a government for the current leadership of Sudan in reality.

RSF has been in war with the Sudan Army since April 2023 and seeks to increase its control and impact in central and eastern Sudan to expand its operating theater.

SPLM-N is an armed movement headed by Abdulaziz Al-Hilo, which was fighting the Sudan Army for decades and controlling areas in the states of southern Kordovan and the Blue Nile, both on the border with South Sudan.

Analysts said that the Sudan Army responds with the support of southern Sudanese militias to fight Splm-N and RSF along its borders of 2000 km (1240 miles).

South Sudan is already dealing with its own political crisis, which can return the country to a comprehensive civil war.

“If things collapsed in southern Sudan, this will make it very difficult to separate the war in Sudan from the war in southern Sudan,” Alan Bouswell, an expert in South Sudan and Sudan, told the International Crisis Group.

Strategic Alliance

SPLM-N was criticized for an alliance with RSF, which was accused of being linked to many atrocities by the United Nations and other observers.

Kholoud Khair, an expert in Sudan and the founding director of the Consultative Research Tank, said that heilo is likely to choose the alliance because he could not remain neutral anymore.

She told Al -Jazeera: “Abdel Aziz realized that RSF will be close to his neighbor (next to the state of southern Kordovan) and could not fight the army and RSF at the same time.”

On March 23, RSF western Kordovan, which borders southern Kordovan

Southern Kordovan also shares the border with the states of northern Kordovan and the Nile. The latter is a major strategic point to reach central Sudan, including the state of bread basket in the country known as Gezira, which RSF recently lost to the army.

Blue Nile is also a strategic point as it shares international borders with Ethiopia.

Buswell said that the partnership with Splm-N gives RSF a much larger operating theater to smuggle supplies from South Sudan and Ethiopia and draw new attacks against the army-civilians-in central and northern Sudan.

He told Jazeera: “The army wanted to pay RSF west of the Nile (towards Darfur’s western region) by mainly capturing all bridges (in Khartoum).”

He said: “But if RSF managed to return back and forth (southern Sudan) from southern Kordovan, and if he can go through the Blue Nile and Ethiopia, this is a major threat and makes the strategy to contain the army more difficult.”

Proxy

During the civil war to the north and south of Sudan from 1983 to 2005, before South Sudan became independent, Khartoum sought to undermine the Liberation of the People’s Liberation of Sudan (Splm), the main group that fights for the liberation of the south. To do this, the southern militias supported it.

The war ended with a peace agreement that gave the southerners the right to vote in the independence referendum, and in 2011, South Sudan became the latest country in the world.

SPLM-N, who grew up from SLM, shares the history of the ruling elite in southern Sudan to fight the Sudanese army.

During the civil war, tribal representatives in southern Kordovan and Zarqa fought as part of SLM while the government was “usually dependent on agents to fight its wars,” said Havez Mohamed, who was originally located from the Nuba Mountains and the heads of the Human Rights Group in Africa.

In 1987, the government began to arm the Bedouins and the sponsors referred to as “Arabs” to fight stable farmers in the south who are seen as “non -Arabs.”

For years, the approach of the gap and oppression will be the way the army works to combat rebellions throughout the country, and the most famous in the early first decade of the twentieth century will later become RSF.

When President Omar Al-Bashaer reached power through a bloody military coup in 1989, this strategy doubled by forming the Popular Defense Forces (PDF)-a tool for the National Islamic Ruler at that time to mobilize young people politically and military.

PDF forces have become notorious to set fire to the entire villages and carry out brief killings.

Horrible violations often exacerbated the local competition of agricultural lands, which stem from contracts of state -backed land policies that raised national elites and local communities that have been uprooted for industrial agriculture.

Comet

After the secession of South Sudan, Nuba felt a leaving in Sudan.

According to the peace agreement that ended the Civil War, Nuba in Blue Nile and South Kordofan will participate in “popular consultations” with mysterious formulation with the central government to address the root causes of the conflict.

However, consultations have never been achieved due to the lack of political will of Khartoum and Nuba fighters.

The former was looking to unite control over the rest of Sudan through force. The latter, renamed by Splm-N, continued their rebellion with limited political and logistical assistance from Sudanese President Salva Kiir, according to Report from Small Weapons Survey From March 2013.

Buswell said that these historical relations make the commander of the Sudan Army, Abd al-Fah al-Fattan, believed that Kiir calmly supports the RSF and Splm-N.

He told Al-Jazeera Island: “Kiir has always been close to Splm-N.” “From the point of view of (the army), it holds (South Sudan) responsible for anything that Splm-N does.”

Kiir may be surprised that his old comrades had partnered with RSF. In 2015, the RSF army was sent to the Nuba Mountains to the battle of Hilo fighters.

However, RSF suffered a largely humiliating defeat because he used to fight more in the sprawling desert of the green heights of the Nuba Mountains.

The RSF origins date back to the Darfur war in 2003, when the “Arab” tribal militias were recruited by the army to crush a “non -Arab” rebellion against the neglect of the state and non -representation in the central government.

The “Arab” militia committed countless atrocities, such as brief killings and systematic rape, which gain them the name “Janjaweed”, and this means “Devils on Horseback” in the Arabic language.

In 2013, the Pasheer renamed Janjaweed in RSF to help his system and combat anthropological controls throughout the country, not only Darfur.

He did not know that RSF will rebel against the army after years.

Division and referee again?

It seems that the army is activating other old agents in South Sudan to confront the new partnership.

South Sudan is politically divided between militias and the normal forces loyal to Kiir and a group of militias nomineively aligned with Vice President Rick Mashr.

Kiir belongs to Dinka, the largest ethnic group in South Sudan, while Machar is Noir, the second largest tribe.

Their rivalry returns to the civil war before independence, which saw Machar accepts help from the Khartoum government To fight against SLM in an attempt to overthrow her leader, John Garang.

In July 2005, seven months after the war ended, Garang died in A. A helicopter crash. Kiir, whose deputy, quickly took control of SLMM.

In 2013, two years after South Sudan gained independence, the power struggle between Machar and Kiir came down to a civil war.

Most circular forces are corresponding to Machar in opposition to Splm-in (Splm-IO) to distinguish themselves from Splm Kiir.

Violence was killed about 400,000 people before the signing of the fragile power -sharing agreement after five years.

While violence in the capital of South Sudan, Juba, was subside after the peace agreement, the atrocities continued on the parties due to government practices The appointment of corrupt conservatives, local militias and resource extraction, According to Joshua madness, an independent expert in South Sudan and Sudan.

He added that the current war of Sudan was leaking to the conflict parties in South Sudan, indicating clashes between some of the leaders of Splm-II and RSF this month. RSF and Splm-N are located along the common border with the South Kordofan current next to the South Sudan Unit and the Upper Nile State.

According to what happened, clashes with RSF with a Splm-IO armed group in the Alawite Nile.

Krachis told “an island”: “The (Sudan Army) wants to a large extent to disrupt RSF movements along the border (southern Sudan) … by supporting some SLM-II leaders.”

Al-Jazeera sent written questions to Sudanese army spokesman Nabil Abdullah asking whether the army provides logistical and material support to the Splm-Yo factions. It was not mentioned by publishing time.

An integrated struggle?

On Thursday, Kyier sent his security forces to put a denominator under the arrest of the house, a step that is now pushing southern Sudan near the edge of the comprehensive civil war, according to the United Nations.

Kiir Machar is accused of supporting the Nuer community militia that has fought with government forces this month.

But Craze said that Machar has no leadership on these militias and added that they respond to the behavior of the predatory and oppressive government in their areas.

“What we face is very disturbing and dangerous. We are facing the full seizure of South Sudan,” Genz told Al -Jazeera.

If these expectations are correct, many young people in southern Sudan may end to fighting as a mercenary in Sudan, as Buswell said, noting that the army -backed groups and RSF are already recruiting southern Sudan and “employment can be captured.”

And he warned that if South Sudan returns to the civil war, RSF may benefit.

“I do not think that the collapse in Juba is in the interest of (Sudan Army),” he said. “Even if the army believes that Juba helps RSF, the collapse of South Sudan will give RSF a much larger operating theater than it was already.”