Analysts say China is already in front of us in the human robot race

Like American technology giants Timing and Nafidia They are racing to develop human robots, which confirms their importance to the future economy. But analysts warn that they are already at risk of losing to China.

It is expected that the so-called human robots-machines that work with artificial intelligence designed to resemble humans in appearance and movement-a set of cases of use, such as filling the functions of the industrial sector and services.

Investor excitement He surrounded the robots rising in the middle It is mentioned over Among the technology leaders such as Jensen Huang from Nafidia, which started in the “public robots era” earlier this month when a new announcement Technology portfolio For the development of human robot.

In the manufacture of robots themselves, it appears that the Tesla Humanoid Robot project, Optimus, leads in the United States, With the CEO Elon Musk announces plans To produce about 5,000 units this year.

While the ambitious Musk plans can give it a leg on American competitors such as Apptronik and Boston Dynamics that have not yet reached the comprehensive market, it will face intense competition from a familiar source: China.

UNITREE ROBIOTICS sold its headquarters last month for a short period of human robots for consumers on the e -commerce platform JD.com, such as For all local media. Meanwhile, the Shanghai -based Agibot, which is also known as Zhiyuan Robotics, match Optimus’s goal in producing 5,000 robots this year, according to Post morning South China.

She also loves Chinese electric car companies BYD begins to overcome the growth of Tesla And reduce their prices, experts say a similar dynamic can play in human robots.

“China has the ability to repeat its sabotage effect from the EV industry in human space. However, the turmoil may go beyond one industry, which transforms the workforce itself,” said Rick Kenitsen, an analyst at Simianlik, an independent search company specialized in semiconductors.

For example, UNITREE released G1 Humanoid Robot For consumers in May, at a start price of $ 16,000. By comparison, Morgan Stanley estimates that the cost of selling Robot Optimus Gen2 Humanoid from Tesla can be about $ 20,000, but only if the company is able to expand its scope, shorten the search and development cycle, and use cost -effective components from China.

UNITREE achieved a large splash in the robot area in January when 16 of the most performance New lunar year In a demonstration Broadcast on National TV.

But there are signs that China’s progress in robots goes far further. The Morgan Stanley Research Memorandum in February has found that the country has led the world in patent files that state “Humanoid” over the past five years, with 5688 patents compared to 1483 from the United States.

Senior players like Xiaomi EV makers, such as BYD, Chery, and Xpeng, also participate in the area of ​​human robot.

The note said: “Our research indicates that China continues to show the most impressive progress in human robots, as startups benefit from known supply chains, local adoption opportunities, and strong degrees of support for the national government.”

Beijing has increasingly supported space, as government departments enhance its development. In 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Issued instructions For space, calling “production on a scale” by 2025.

According to Ming Hsun Lee, Head of Bofa Global Research, China believes that human robots are an important industry because of their ability to reduce the shortage of workers waving on the horizon.

“I think in the short term, from three to four years, we will see the human robots that were initially applied in production lines to compare some workers, and in the middle of the range, we will see them gradually spread in the service industry,” he said.

Musk expects to have more than 1000, or a few thousand, Optimus robots work in Tesla In 2025. Chinese government mediaEV makers like BYD and Geely have already published some human robots in UNITEE in their factories.

He told me that the increase in adoption would coincide with a “very rapid” decrease in the costs of the components, noting that China has about 70 % of the supply chain of these components.

According to a report issued by Semianlysis earlier this month, Unitree G1 – the “only human robot in the market” – is completely separated by American components.

The report warns that China is the only country to reap economic prizes for smart robots, including human robots, which “pose an existential threat to the United States because it has been neglected in all capabilities.”

“American players must quickly fill out a strong and industrial manufacturing base, whether local or through allied countries … for Tesla and similar companies, it may be wise to start reformulation or” friends’ comfort “that you make and manufacture to reduce dependence on China.

Bank of America expected in a research note this month that the deployment of human robots will accelerate quickly, with the help of developing artificial intelligence, as global annual sales reach one million units by 2030 and 3 billion of human robots that operate by 2060.