Analysis – Syrian Kurdish groups in a defensive position as the balance of power changes, by Reuters

Written by Orhan Karaman, Tom Perry and Tuvan Gumrekcu

QAMISHLI (Syria/Beirut/Ankara) (Reuters) – With Turkey-backed hostile groups mobilized against them in northern Syria and Damascus ruled by a group friendly to Ankara, Syria’s main Kurdish factions are on the defensive as they seek to preserve their political gains. It was carved during 13 years of war.

Part of a stateless ethnic group stretching across Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Armenia and Syria, the Kurds have so far been among the few winners in the Syrian conflict, controlling nearly a quarter of the country and leading a powerful armed group that is a key US ally. Confronting ISIS.

But the balance of power has tilted against them since Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham fighters invaded Damascus this month and ousted President Bashar al-Assad, two analysts and a senior Western diplomat told Reuters.

The seismic change in Syria is expected to lead to deeper Turkish influence, at a time when the change of US administration raises questions about how long Washington will continue to support Kurdish-led forces in the country.

For Turkey, Kurdish factions represent a threat to national security. Ankara considers them an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, which has been waging an insurgency against the Turkish state since 1984, and is considered a terrorist group by Türkiye, the United States and other powers.

Syrian Kurdish groups “face a very deep problem,” said Aaron Lund, a fellow at Century International, a US-based think tank.

“The balance has fundamentally shifted in Syria in favor of factions backed or allied with Turkey, and Turkey seems determined to exploit this to the fullest.”

This shift was reflected in renewed fighting for control of the north, as Turkish-backed armed groups known as the Syrian National Army made military advances against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces.

Fanar al-Kait, a senior official in the Kurdish-led regional administration, told Reuters that the ouster of Assad, whose Arab nationalist Baath Party has suppressed Kurds for decades, represents an opportunity to put the divided country back together.

He said that the administration was ready for dialogue with Türkiye, but the conflict in the north showed that Ankara had “very bad intentions.”

“This will certainly push the region towards… a new conflict,” he added.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Friday that he expected foreign countries to withdraw their support for Kurdish fighters after the ouster of Assad, as Ankara seeks to isolate the People’s Protection Units, the Kurdish militia that led the Syrian Democratic Forces coalition.

In response to questions from Reuters, a Turkish official said that the root cause of the conflict “is not Turkey’s view of the region; it is that the PKK/YPG is a terrorist organization.”

“The PKK and YPG members must lay down their weapons and leave Syria,” the official said.

In an interview with Reuters on Thursday, the commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces, Mazloum Abdi, acknowledged the presence of PKK fighters in Syria for the first time, saying that they had helped fight ISIS and would return to their homes if a complete ceasefire was agreed upon with Türkiye. He denied any organizational ties with the PKK.

Feminism and Islam

Meanwhile, in Damascus, the new leadership is showing warmth toward Ankara and signaling its desire to return all of Syria to central authority — a potential challenge to the decentralization favored by the Kurds.

While Türkiye provides direct support to the Syrian National Army, it and other countries consider Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham a terrorist group due to its past in al-Qaeda.

Despite this, Ankara is believed to have significant influence over the group. “It is clear that the Turks can influence them more than anyone else,” a senior Western diplomat said.

The leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, Ahmed al-Shara, told a Turkish newspaper that the overthrow of Assad “is not only a victory for the Syrian people, but also for the Turkish people.”

The Turkish official said that Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham was never under Ankara’s control, describing it as a structure that “we were communicating with due to the circumstances,” adding that many Western countries do as well.

Syrian Kurdish groups led by the Democratic Union Party and its YPG militia took control of much of the north after the uprising against Assad began in 2011. They established their own administration, while insisting that their goal was autonomy, not independence.

Their policies, which focus on socialism and feminism, differ starkly from the Islamism of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham.

Their territory expanded as US-led forces partnered with the Syrian Democratic Forces in the campaign against ISIS, seizing Arab-majority areas.

The Turkish-backed Syrian National Army factions intensified their campaign against the Syrian Democratic Forces with the fall of Assad, and seized the city of Manbij on December 9.

Washington brokered a ceasefire, but the Syrian Democratic Forces said Türkiye and its allies had not adhered to it, and a Turkish Defense Ministry official said there was no such agreement.

American support for the Syrian Democratic Forces was a point of tension with its NATO ally, Türkiye. Washington considers the Syrian Democratic Forces a major partner in confronting ISIS, which Secretary of State Anthony Blinken warned would try to use this period to rebuild its capabilities in Syria. The Syrian Democratic Forces are still guarding tens of thousands of detainees linked to the armed group.

Turkish Defense Minister Yaşar Guler said last weekend that Türkiye sees no sign of the return of ISIS in Syria. On Friday, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told his German counterpart during talks in Ankara that alternatives must be found to manage the camps and prisons where detainees are held.

Separately, US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf said on Friday that Washington was working with Ankara and the Syrian Democratic Forces to find “an orderly transition regarding the role of the Syrian Democratic Forces in that part of the country.”

President Joe Biden’s administration has said that US forces will remain in Syria, but President-elect Donald Trump may remove them when he takes office on January 20.

Message to Trump

During his first administration, Trump tried to withdraw from Syria but faced pressure at home and from US allies.

In a December 17 letter to Trump, seen by Reuters, Elham Ahmed, a senior Syrian Kurdish official, said Turkey was preparing to invade the northeast of the country before he took office.

She wrote that Türkiye’s plan “threatens to undo years of progress in ensuring stability and combating terrorism.” “We believe you have the power to prevent this disaster.”

In response to a request for comment, Trump-Vance transition spokesman Brian Hughes said: “We continue to monitor the situation in Syria. President Trump is committed to reducing threats to peace and stability in the Middle East and protecting Americans here at home.”

Trump said on December 16 that Türkiye “will hold the key” to what happens in Syria, but he did not announce his plans for US forces stationed there.

“The Kurds are in an unenviable position,” said Joshua Landis, an expert on Syria at the University of Oklahoma. “Once Damascus consolidates its power, it will move in the region. The United States cannot stay there forever.”

Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham leader al-Sharaa told the BBC that the Kurds are “part of our people” and “there should be no division of Syria,” adding that weapons should be entirely in the hands of the state.

Al-Sharaa acknowledged one of Turkey’s main fears, which is the presence of non-Syrian Kurdish fighters in Syria, and said: “We do not accept that Syrian lands threaten Turkey or others and destabilize them.”

He pledged to work through dialogue and negotiations to find a “peaceful formula to solve the problem,” expressing his belief that there are preliminary contacts “between the Kurds in northeastern Syria or the Syrian Democratic Forces organization.”

The Kurdish official Kayte said that his administration wants “a democratic Syria, a decentralized Syria, a Syria that represents all Syrians from all sects, religions and ethnicities,” describing this as red lines. He added that the Syrian Democratic Forces will be “the nucleus of the next Syrian army.”

Abdi, commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces, confirmed in his interview with Reuters that contacts had been made with Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham to avoid clashes between their forces, but said that Ankara would try to drive a wedge between Damascus and the Kurdish-led administration.

However, he said there was strong support from international parties, including the US-led coalition, for the SDF to join the “new political phase” in Damascus, describing it as a “great opportunity.”

He added: “After the comprehensive ceasefire between us and Türkiye and its affiliated factions, we are preparing to join this stage.”

(Reporting by Orhan Karaman in Qamishli, Syria, Tom Perry in Beirut, and Tuvan Gumrekcu in Ankara; Additional reporting by John Irish in Paris, Humeyra Pamuk in Washington, and Darren Butler in Istanbul; Writing by Tom Perry; Editing by Alexandra Zavis)