(Opinions expressed here are the views of the author, a column writer for Reuters.)
Written by Mike Dolan
LONDON (Reuters) – What matters in the United States and global markets today
Written by Mike Dolan, editor, man, financial industry and financial markets
American stocks settled for the second day on Monday, when the details of the retail sales report in the United States in February calmed down some of the worst concerns about American consumers. Meanwhile, global stocks pushed up European stimulus.
Today, I will take a look at the Bank of England, one of the largest major central banks this week. Although the Bank of England is expected to have majestic at the next meeting, I will discuss the reason for the surprise of investors. For this and more market news, keep reading.
Market accurate today
A survey of Bofa Global Research on Tuesday showed that the allocations for American stocks witnessed the largest decrease ever in March with concerns about recession, commercial wars and the exceptional end of the United States, which leads a “bull collision” in feelings.
* Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney says that Trump should stop providing “unauthorized” comments about his country before the two sides were able to start serious talks on future relations.
* Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will invite today to discuss energy stations and Earth concessions by Kiev as part of their talks to end the war in Ukraine.
* The lower parliament in Germany is scheduled to vote on Tuesday, a huge increase in borrowing, which can enhance the largest economy in Europe and stimulate growth throughout the region.
* Trump’s tariff will decrease growth in the United States, Canada and Mexico, with increased inflation, according to expectations from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
Wall Street stability with the rise of Europe
Although the main profit in the US retail number in the United States last month was less than expectations, the details of the report were more positive. This was offered some condolences to the nervous markets, which were also forced to absorb another disturbing manufacturing and an additional sign in the home morale.
Industrial production and housing beginnings are being implemented after Tuesday, as the Federal Reserve began its two -day meeting, which is likely to end with FOMC voting to maintain the main interest rate.
Wall Street futures fell again before Tuesday, as the major technology continued to have a weak performance on Monday and the indexes of the so -called great in red color again despite the broader S&P 500 gains.
Another 5 % decrease in the price of the tesla giant cars is a prominent step per day.
US Treasury revenue continues to pay a higher pace to the Federal Reserve meeting, with an auction of 20 -year bonds later today. In contrast, the dollar was equal early on Tuesday, as it looks at the lowest point in the year, as the euro rose again on financial plans in Germany.
On Tuesday, the lower parliament in Germany is scheduled to vote on a huge increase in borrowing that can enhance the largest economy in Europe and stimulate growth throughout the region, so that the bloc faces trade tensions with the United States.
The shares of the euro area increased by 1 % earlier, with the increase in German MidCaps average by more than 2 %.
While no changes in the main policy in any major monetary policy meetings will expect this week, the pressure on the Bank of England may escalate more than anywhere else. This is the topic of deep diving today.
Perhaps Boy should “penetrate” through noise “
Within a week, the major central banks are expected to remain fixed, fell into a storm of destroyed American policies, as the Bank of England may be the most reasons for cutting to the chase.
Monetary policy makers face a potential double sensation from the high tariff for US President Donald Trump, as it can reach global growth while stimulating prices as well. It is expected that all Federal Reserves, Japan Bank, Swiss National Bank and England Bank will sit at their hands this week and watch what is revealed.
The Bank of England must also take into account the local considerations, which are the political optics of transforming politics only one week before the UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves updated its budget plans and economic expectations.
However, there is no shortage of the reasons why policymakers at the Bank of England may tend to mitigate, regardless of political fog abroad, smoke and mirrors at home.
The economy, which suffers from Britain, began with another surprise contraction in January. The expected growth predictions of BOE themselves exacerbated last month due to another UK’s expectations of 2025 by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development on Monday.
Although Reeves may be concerned about achieving its financial goals in view of the potential richness of government returns, the additional pressure on government spending now appears to be a self -defeat, not at least because it will come above the high tax owner’s tax next month.
So the issue of using monetary policy to break the economic Logjam is adopting, despite manual inflation in wage inflation and services.
The wonderful part of Boy Bank’s drama is that the dilution calls come increasingly from within the bank’s ranks.
Man under
In one of the most dramatic transformations of the Bank of England price status in recent years, Political maker Catherine Man has turned from the hawks residing to Uber Dove at the England Bank meeting in early February.
Man’s voice to reduce half a point, which was twice the final step. She replaced the two sides within the council consisting of nine people at a critical turn, where she joined Dove Sousa more famous in calling for a 50-basis reduction to 4.25 %.
This indicates the importance of this change, the bank’s bank data appears about the voting records that it was the first time that Man has ever voted to reduce average rate in a 28 meeting since joining the Policy Industry Council in late 2021.
As for the record, I voted in favor of 18 increase in that period and voted for a higher rate of final decision in 11 of 28 meetings.
If you are going to turn, it is better to turn a large degree.
The gradual “is no longer valid”
Man justified its transformation on the pretext that the goal of inflation by 2 % in the Bank of England can be reached next year because the British companies will struggle to raise prices as consumers are exposed to job losses and softening spending.
But the most news discovery was when she said last month that a half -point step “to clarify noise” and clarify the financial system was needed that the easiest conditions are currently necessary in the United Kingdom.
For her, there is definitely a lack of noise at the present time, at home and abroad.
In the data earlier this month, it doubled: “With the volatility of the financial markets, especially insecurity across the border, the founding hypothesis of a gradual approach to monetary policy is no longer valid.”
Man’s concern that the small quarter movements will not make a big difference in the current environment rings. In fact, it is one of the reasons why everyone assumes that the rates will leave unchanged, waiting for more clarity.
All 61 economists expect this week to leave the Bank of England to leave suspended rates of 4.5 %, with the next reduction to May.
The Reuters poll also indicated a 7-2 division of the committee in favor of maintaining rates, with Man and Dingra pushed more.
Some banks, such as Morgan Stanley, see the division into 6-3, with the latest member, Alan Taylor, is likely to join the dissidents, after voting to reduce in three of his four meetings so far.
Claire Lombardili, another modern and Duofish addition to the committee, can also be in this mix.
Meanwhile, the markets are pricing a relatively noisy policy, with additional discounts in an additional expected Bank of England during the remaining period of 2025, which means that the end of the year will be just less than 4 %. This is higher than the Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank.
There is a large space for surprise.
Today’s scheme
Although Wall Street’s stock indexes settled on Monday, “Big Tech” continued to weak, and Tesla moved from Elon Musk again, as it decreased by another 5 % as the mediators reduced the price of the electric car maker. Tesla now decreased more than 40 % for the year.
On the contrary, Hong Kong shares in the Chinese maker rose by 6 % on Tuesday and jumped about 40 % in dollars this year. The latest BYD increased after it revealed a new platform for EVS, which it may receive EVS at the speed required by pumping gas and after it announced plans to build a shipping network throughout China.
Today’s events to watch
* Housing permits in February, industrial production in February, start import/export prices in February; Canada February is enlarged
* Each of the Federal Open Market Committee for the Federal Reserve in the United States and the Bank of Japan begins two -day policy meetings, with both decisions on Wednesday
* French President Emmanuel Macron meets the German chancellor, the pardoned in Berlin
* The US Treasury is selling $ 13 billion in 20 -year bonds
The views expressed are the views of the author. It does not reflect the opinions of Reuters news, which, according to the principles of confidence, is committed to integrity, independence and liberation from bias.
(Written by Mike Dolan; Edited by Rod Nickel)
