After ecstasy, Lebanon and Syria realize what awaits us

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The author, author of “Wave” and FT contribution editor

For a few short weeks in December and January, Lebanon and Syria were in a bubble of euphoria. In December, Assad’s cruel dictatorship fell five decades after the arrest of Syria and more than a decade of war. One of the jihadists who turned to a national leader moved to the presidential palace in Damascus. Dancing continued on the streets for weeks.

In Lebanon, there was a lack of confirmation when former army commander Joseph Aoun was elected president and delivered a strong speech in support of the sovereignty of the builders. The nomination of Nour Salam, the former chief judge in the International Court of Justice, as prime minister, seemed very good so that it could not be true.

Lebanon was suffering through two decades of Hezbollah suffocating Ali policyIncluding a series of assassinations implemented by the Shiite armed group and the Assad regime. In 2019, the economy carried out tanks and lost the depositors their savings. Then last fall, the Israeli war against Lebanon cost the country by about 14 billion dollars. The Israeli military campaign also destroys Hezbollah, which led to the group’s deficit.

The mood has increased in both countries now, not only because of the size of the next task, but also because the system of acquired interests is back.

The clearest example of how anti -revolutionary strikes appeared in Egypt, after the fall of Hosni Mubarak in 2011. The young revolutionaries did not prepare for the elections because they believed they reached their destination. Meanwhile, the army and the old regime were busy with the authority of the back. There is nothing like a new start or a clean break with the past.

in SyriaThe residues of the Assad regime and Hizballah, which helped Assad to stay in power, try to sabotage the transition by raising a coup, which raises the sect violence And fighting to maintain control of the pockets of lands. Separately, temporary President Ahmed Al -Sharra shows clear authoritarian tendencies, eliminating his ability to learn from errors.

In LebanonThe appointment of wealth director Karim Suwaid as a ruler of the Central Bank, Pank de Liban, was disappointment towards the reformists, politicians and depositors. Souaid is seen as very close to the banking elite – which has crashed the country’s financing and tries to evade accountability. In addition, one of the advisers of President Aoun sit on the Board of Directors of Sweden Private Investment Company, GrowthWhich raises concerns about the conflict of potential interests.

The Souaid Cabinet’s vote is also a strong reminder that Hizballah’s strangling on its policy was not the only problem of Lebanon. The group maintained a regime in which the political elites fled in the country flourished, some of them are the former warlords. So, work as usual?

Some people’s reaction was to surrender, believing that nothing had a difference. But this is the wrong lesson of drawing. In Syria, it took years of the war to dismiss Assad, as well as contracts of painful and continuous opposition sacrifices to build the ability of activists, lawyers and thinkers who can now move forward, help rebuild Syria, and most importantly to bear Shara.

In Lebanon, the arrival of Aoun and Salam was not the result of a few months of diplomatic and political negotiations, and this was not only possible through the sudden weakness of Hizballah. Instead, it was the culmination of two street protests against Syria, Hezbollah and the ruling institution, as well as repeated efforts by independent candidates to penetrate in local and legislative elections.

A peace nominated was in particular the result of an arduous campaign by the new legislators who turned against the votes in Parliament to prevent the return of the former Prime Minister who embodies the old regime. The following battle begins now: Aoun, Salam and Souaid hold in parliament, in public debate and advocacy work, and even in the streets. There is a lot at the stake to allow the Central Bank to enter into an economic amnesty, after the war princes in Lebanon obtained a political amnesty at the end of the civil war in 1990.

There is also a lesson here for Americans and even Europeans, who deal with spread sense It is deficit amid the chaos of the new Trump era. Building the rule of law and governance, or restoring them in countries such as Syria or Lebanon, is a struggle that is not softening – just as it should be preserved in Western democracies. Each setback is part of the trip and also an invitation to work.