“A total effective tariff for India to increase 19.5 % …”: Goldman Sachs says in its report

The decision made by President Donald Trump to implement a widespread tariff for imports from both allies and competitors led to possible threats to revenge and increase tensions in the global trade scene. Despite this uncertainty, analysts and financial institutions are optimistic about the limited impact of these customs duties on the Indian economy.

As part of his economic strategy known as the “Liberation Day” plan, President Trump revealed the introduction of a new tariff on Thursday. These definitions, including mutual measures against countries such as India (27 %), China, Brazil, Japan and the European Union, are scheduled to enter the near future. The Trump administration announced that starting from April 5, a standard tariff rate of 10 % will be imposed on all American imports, with valid on April 9.

“A total effective tariff for India to increase 19.5 % through advertisements so far, estimating a possible decrease of $ 15 billion in Indian exports, which is about 0.4 % of GDP in India,” Goldman Sachs indicated in its report.

In Cy24, the United States appeared as one of the prominent commercial partners in India, facilitating $ 124 billion in bilateral trade. During this period, Indian exports to the United States amounted to $ 81 billion, while imports from the United States amounted to $ 44 billion.

Consequently, India has enjoyed a 37 billion dollar trade surplus in Cy24. The United States carries a distinction from being an essential export destination in India, where it receives a 18 % stake in CY24, a significant increase of 13 % in Cy14 and 6 % in CY06. It should be noted that India’s imports from the United States remained 6 % consistent with total imports in Cy24, compared to 5 % in Cy14.

According to the local mediation company Motilal Oswal, the effect of American definitions on India is expected to be small. India’s exports in the six most vulnerable sectors account for only 1.1 % of the country’s gross domestic product.

“In general, we expect that the effect of mutual definitions on India will be limited at the national level, assuming the reciprocate treatment at the product level.”

According to Motilal Oswal, India can face a commercial decrease in exports to the United States, which total about $ 3.6 billion. This amount represents only 0.1 % of GDP in India. The expected decline is due to the variation of a 9 % tariff and the supposed flexibility from India’s exports to the United States with regard to the definitions at -0.5. This indicates that each increase of 1 % in the tariff rate, India’s exports to the United States may decrease by 0.5 %.

“This is because with a 9 % differentiating tariff and the assumption that the flexibility of India’s exports to the United States regarding the definitions are -0.5 (which means 1 % in the rate of international tariffs would reduce India’s exports to the United States by 0.5 %),” said Motilal Oswal.

This opinion is supported by major international brokerage companies such as HSBC.

According to HSBC, global trade forecast indicates a significant decrease in export volume growth, from 2.9 % in 2024 to 1.3 % in 2025-26. This change is due to reducing the demand for American import and the harmful effects of uncertainty over global confidence and investment.

The FIEO Federation also indicated that the import duties imposed by US President Donald Trump will have a significant impact on Indian companies. Nevertheless, India’s position is still relatively compared to other countries.

“We have to evaluate the effect, but given the mutual definitions imposed on other countries, we are in a lesser band. We are in a much better position compared to our main competitors such as Vietnam, China, Indonesia, Myanmar, etc. PTI.

US tariff for India

During his recent speech, the President of the United States discussed the issue of high definitions imposed by India on American goods. In response, the President announced the implementation of mutual definitions on various countries, including a 26 percent mutual tariff in India.

In support of his announcement, the president presented a plan that shows the definitions applied by countries such as India, China, the United Kingdom and the European Union, as well as the mutual definitions that these countries will face now.

The graph revealed that India has put a 56 percent tariff, noting fears such as currency manipulation and commercial barriers. Consequently, the United States will now impose a 26 percent reduced tariff on the goods imported from India.

“India is very difficult,” Trump said. They receive 52 percent … “, Trump said.

Despite facing the challenges of Trump’s identification policies, global economists are confident that India will maintain its position as the fastest growing economy in the world. Global economic expectations in the International Monetary Fund in January, which will soon become the third largest economy in the world. Numora’s recent research sheds light on India as one of the most powerful Asian economies amid current trade tensions.