A prominent Iranian general admits the “huge” defeat in Syria

Iran’s top generals in Syria have contradicted the official line taken by Iran’s leaders on the sudden fall of their ally Bashar al-Assad, saying in a remarkably frank speech last week that Iran had suffered a major defeat but would still try to operate in Syria. nation.

Audio recording of the speech delivered by the Dean last week. Gen. Behrouz Isbati appeared at a Tehran mosque, appearing publicly on Monday in Iranian media, a stark contrast to statements by Iran’s president, foreign minister and other senior leaders. For weeks they downplayed the extent of Iran’s strategic loss in Syria last month, when rebels ousted Assad from power, and said Iran would respect any political outcome decided by the Syrian people.

General Al-Asbati said, according to the audio recording of his speech: “I do not consider the loss of Syria to be something to be proud of.” media server, Geneva-based news site focusing on Iran, published on Monday. “We were beaten, we were beaten badly, we were hit very hard and it was very difficult.”

General Esbati revealed that Iran’s relations with Mr. Assad had been tense for several months before his ouster, saying that the Syrian leader had rejected multiple requests by Iranian-backed militias to open a front against Israel from Syria, in the wake of the war. Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023.

He said that Iran presented Assad with comprehensive military plans on how to use Iranian military resources in Syria to attack Israel.

The general also accused Russia, considered a major ally, of misleading Iran by telling it that Russian planes were bombing Syrian rebels when in fact they were dropping bombs on open fields. He also said that last year, when Israel struck Iranian targets in Syria, Russia “turned off the radars,” in effect facilitating these attacks.

For more than a decade, Iran has supported Mr. Assad by sending commanders and troops to help it fight against opposition rebels and the Islamic State terrorist group.

Under Mr. Assad, Syria was crucial to the Iranian-backed regional militia network. It has provided a land corridor for Iran to supply armed groups with weapons and equipment, most importantly Hezbollah in Lebanon, enhancing the militants’ power and Iran’s regional influence.

The rebel coalition has now captured much of Syria and is… Trying to form a governmentR. In his speech, General Isbati said that Iran will look for ways to recruit rebels, whatever form the new Syria takes.

“We can activate all the networks we have worked with over the years,” he said. “We can revitalize the social strata in which our men have lived for years; “We can be active in social media and we can form resistance cells.”

He added: “Now we can work there as we do in other international arenas, and we have already begun.”

The general’s comments caught Iranians by surprise, both because of their unfiltered content and the speaker’s stature. He is Commander-in-Chief of the Iranian Armed Forces, the umbrella group that includes the Army and Revolutionary Guard Corps, and has a record of prominent roles including Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces’ Cyber ​​Division.

In Syria, he oversaw Iranian military operations and coordinated closely with Syrian ministers and defense officials and with Russian generals — more than even the commander-in-chief of the Quds Forces, General Ismail Qaani, who oversees the Iranian-backed regional militia network.

Mehdi Rahmati, a prominent Tehran-based analyst and Syria expert, said in a phone interview that General Esbati’s speech was important because it showed that some senior officials were turning away from government propaganda and engaging with the public.

“Everyone talks about the speech in meetings and wonders why he said these things, especially in a public forum,” Rahmati said. He made it very clear what happened to Iran and where it is now. “In a way, this could serve as a warning for domestic politics.”

Major General Isbati said the fall of the Assad regime was inevitable given the rampant corruption, political repression and economic difficulties people faced, from lack of energy to fuel to a livable income. He said Mr. Assad ignored warnings about reform. Analyst Rahmati said that the comparison with the current situation in Iran is difficult to miss.

Despite the general’s assurances about activating the networks, it remains unclear what Iran can realistically do in Syria, given the public and political opposition it has faced in the country and challenges related to land and air access. Israel warned that it would eliminate any Iranian efforts it discovers on the ground in Syria.

While Iran has experience Operating in Iraq after the US invasion in 2003 – Including sowing unrest – Syria’s geography and political landscape differ significantly, posing further challenges.

An Iranian member of the Revolutionary Guard who spent years in Iraq as a military strategist alongside senior commanders said in a phone interview that General Ispati’s comments about Iran’s recruitment of insurgents may be more aspirational than practical at this stage. He said that while General Ispati acknowledged the serious defeat, he also sought to boost morale and calm conservatives demanding that Iran act more forcefully.

The Revolutionary Guard official, who requested that his name not be used because he was discussing sensitive issues, said Iran’s policy had not yet been finalized, but consensus emerged in the meetings he attended where strategy was discussed. He said that Iran would benefit if Syria descended into chaos because Iran knows how to prosper and secure its interests in a turbulent scene.

In Iran, the Revolutionary Guard has the power to determine regional policy and overrule the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final say on key state affairs, has said in at least two speeches since Assad’s fall that resistance is not dead in Syria, adding that Syria’s youth will reclaim their country from ruling rebels. Who he described as agents of Israel and the United States. President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi were more conciliatory, saying they favored stability in Syria and diplomatic relations with the new government.

The tensions surrounding this Competing views on Syria have been preoccupying officials Enough that they embarked on a damage control campaign with the public last week. Senior military leaders and critics close to the government gave speeches and held question-and-answer sessions with audiences at mosques and community centers in several cities.

In his Dec. 31 speech at the Valisr Mosque in central Tehran, Gen. Ispati addressed the ranks of the military and voters of the mosque, according to a public notice about the event titled “Answering Questions About the Collapse of Syria.”

The session began with General Ispati telling the crowd that he had left Syria on the last military plane bound for Tehran the night before Damascus fell to the rebels. The event ended with answering the audience’s questions. He offered his most realistic assessment of Iran’s military capability in fighting Israel and the United States.

When asked whether Iran would respond to Israel’s killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, he replied that Iran had already done so, referring to Rocket barrage Last fall. In response to a question about whether Iran was planning to carry out a third round of direct strikes on Israel, he said that “the situation” could not realistically deal with another attack on Israel at the present time.

In response to a question about why Iran did not fire missiles at US military bases in the region, he said that would invite the United States to launch greater retaliatory attacks on Iran and its allies, adding that regular Iranian missiles – not advanced missiles – cannot penetrate advanced US defenses. Systems.

Despite these assessments, General Ebati said he wanted to reassure everyone not to worry: Iran and its allies, he said, still have the upper hand on the ground in the region.