A plane crash in Kazakhstan is being investigated as speculation grows about the cause

On Thursday, Azerbaijan held a national day of mourning for the victims of the plane crash 38 people were killed and 29 survivors were injured With growing speculation about the possible cause of the disaster.

The Azerbaijani Embraer Airlines plane 190 was on its way from the Azerbaijani capital, Baku, to the Russian city of Grozny in the North Caucasus on Wednesday when its course was diverted for reasons that are still unclear and it crashed while trying to land in Aktau in Kazakhstan after flying east across the Caspian Sea. .

The plane went down about two miles from Aktau. Mobile phone footage, which was circulated online, showed the plane descending heavily before crashing into the ground in the form of a fireball. Other footage showed part of the plane’s fuselage torn from the wings and the rest of the plane lying upside down in the grass.

On Thursday, national flags were flown at half-mast across Azerbaijan, traffic across the country stopped at noon, and signals were sounded from ships and trains as the country observed a nationwide moment of silence.

Speaking at a press conference on Wednesday, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said it was too early to speculate on the causes of the accident, but said the weather forced the plane to change its planned route.

He added, “The information available to me is that the plane changed its course between Baku and Grozny due to bad weather conditions and headed to Aktau Airport, where it crashed upon landing.”

The Russian Civil Aviation Authority, Rozavyatsia, said that preliminary information indicates that the pilots diverted to Aktau after a bird collision led to an emergency on board the plane.

As the official investigation into the crash began, theories abounded about the possible cause, with some commentators claiming that holes seen in the plane’s tail section may indicate that it may have come under fire from Russian air defense systems fending off a Ukrainian drone attack.

Ukrainian drones had previously attacked Grozny, the capital of the Russian province of Chechnya, and other regions in the country’s North Caucasus. Some Russian media claimed another drone attack in Chechnya on Wednesday, although this has not been officially confirmed.

Osprey Flight Solutions, a UK-based aviation security company, warned its clients that “the Azerbaijan Airlines flight was likely shot down by a Russian military air defense system.” Osprey provides an analysis of which airlines are still flying to Russia after Western airlines grounded flights during that period War in Ukraine.

Osprey CEO Andrew Nicholson said the company issued more than 200 alerts about drone attacks and air defense systems in Russia during the war.

“This incident is a stark reminder of why we do what we do,” Nicholson wrote online. “It is painful to know that despite our efforts, lives have been lost in a way that could have been avoided.”

Agence France-Presse quoted Russian military expert Yuri Podolyaka as saying that the holes seen in the wreckage of the plane resemble those that might be left by an “anti-aircraft missile system.” “Everything points to that,” he wrote.

Gerard Legoffre, a former expert at France’s air accident investigation agency BEA, said there appeared to be significant shrapnel damage in the wreckage, according to AFP.

He described it as “reminiscent” of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, which was… It was shot down by a surface-to-air missile by Russian-backed rebels Eastern Ukraine in 2014.

But when asked about allegations that the plane came under fire from air defense assets, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters: “It would be wrong to make hypotheses before investigators make their verdict.”

Kazakh Parliament Speaker Molen Ashimbaev also warned against rushing to conclusions based on images of the plane’s fragments, and described allegations of air defense launches as baseless and “immoral.”

Other officials in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan similarly avoided commenting on the possible cause of the crash, saying it was up to investigators to determine.