Justin Trudeau is trying to save his party. Does it hurt Canada?

Justin Trudeau’s announcement Monday that he was resigning was the final card left to play by Canada’s deeply unpopular prime minister, who has put his party on track to lose the national election.

The political tools he has used will give Mr. Trudeau’s Liberal Party a chance to reinvent itself without him. But it will also leave Canada vulnerable as it braces for President-elect Donald Trump, who has threatened the country with tariffs that could cripple its economy.

Mr. Trudeau appears willing to take this gamble.

In order to allow thousands of members of his party to choose his successor, a long process that will include election campaigning, Mr. Trudeau has suspended Parliament until March 24. General elections are expected to follow.

Holding party leadership elections before a general election is common in countries with parliamentary systems such as Canada’s. Parliament’s suspension of such elections is much less common. In doing so, Mr. Trudeau prevents the potential collapse of the minority government and gives the Liberals time to choose a leader who is not burdened by dismal poll numbers.

But it means that in two weeks, when Mr. Trump returns to the Oval Office, Mr. Trudeau will be leading Canada like a lame duck, weakening the country’s hand in crucial negotiations with its closest allies.

“The prime minister stepping down means it will be difficult for him to carry out any meaningful mandate in negotiating with the United States, and it does not indicate any unity within Canada,” said Xavier Delgado, a senior researcher at the Canadian Institute for Studies. The Wilson Center, a Washington-based foreign policy research institute. “It’s not the right time for Canada to be in this situation.”

Mr. Trudeau’s opponents wanted a quick general election, which would allow a new government with a fresh mandate — likely led by Pierre Poilievre, whose Conservative Party has a significant lead in the polls — to lead Canada’s response to Mr. Trump as soon as possible.

Trump has threatened to impose punitive tariffs on Canadian goods, which could push the country’s economy into recession and upend the North American trade agreement established over the past few decades. (This would also harm the American economy, as the two countries are considered each other’s largest trading partners.)

The president-elect has consistently suggested that Canada should become part of the United States, calling it the “51st state.” He repeated his threatening joke on social media on Monday, after Mr. Trudeau’s resignation was announced: “A lot of people in Canada would love to be the 51st state,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social, promising not to impose tariffs if “Canada merges with… US”. we”

Party first

When Mr. Trudeau became Liberal leader, the party was in disarray. In the 2011 national elections, it ranked third for the first time in its history. Mr. Trudeau, who took over its leadership in 2013, is widely credited with resurrecting it from the dead and returning it to government two years later.

“The Liberal Party, as it is now, has been the party of Justin Trudeau for more than a decade,” said Shachi Kurle, president of the Angus Reid Institute, a think tank. Ms. Corll said that made it difficult for the party to let go and for Mr. Trudeau to relinquish control.

But finally, on Monday morning, after weeks of pressure from within the party to resign, Mr. Trudeau acknowledged that his time was up.

“I really feel that removing the controversy over my ongoing leadership is an opportunity to lower the temperature,” he told reporters gathered in the bitter cold outside his Ottawa residence.

He added: “It has become clear to me in light of the internal battles that I cannot be the person who holds the liberal standard in the upcoming elections.” Mr. Trudeau said that until the Liberals choose their new leader, he will remain in that role as prime minister.

This will be allowed by the party’s internal election process, which will last several weeks A bunch of hopefuls To reintroduce themselves to the public, not as Trudeau’s associates but as individuals vying for leadership of the party and the country.

“I think the Liberals are now clinging to the idea that there is no longer a way forward for him, but there is definitely a way forward for someone else,” Ms. Corll said.

However, with the Conservatives leading the Liberals by 25 percentage points in recent polls, the path Mr. Trudeau bequeaths to his successor is likely to be treacherous.

“60 or 90 days is not a long time to reinvent a party after 10 years in power,” Ms. Corle said. “How many other rabbits are there in the hat? How many other axes are there?”

Brief relief

For many Canadians, Mr. Trudeau’s departure was a necessary condition if they were to consider voting Liberal.

David Colletto, who leads the polling firm Abacus Data, said early research conducted Monday suggested that Canadians were relieved by news of Mr. Trudeau’s resignation, and that his departure had the potential to shift attention away from his unpopularity.

He added: “People say they feel relieved and optimistic about the prime minister stepping down.” “This to me is a signal that there may be an opportunity for the Liberals to rebuild the relationship with Canadians.” But he cautioned that it is not certain that this will happen.

While Mr. Trudeau’s departure will only improve the Liberals’ standing, analysts say, the country is unlikely to benefit from being virtually leaderless with Mr. Trump in office.

As the new president begins to move forward with his agenda — which puts Canada in the crosshairs, with Mr. Trump complaining about border security, Canadian military spending, and the trade imbalance — Canada will try to determine who is in charge.

“Canada will be stronger in dealing with the United States if it can unite around the message to its leader — and that applies to any country,” said Delgado of the Wilson Centre’s Canada Institute.

Others were less concerned, noting that Canada’s dealings with the Trump administration would be a long game.

No leader will be able to strike a deal with Mr. Trump on day one, said Gerald Potts, a former senior adviser to Mr. Trudeau who is now vice president of the Eurasia Group, a consulting firm.

“Nothing bad and irreparable is going to happen in the next three months,” Mr Potts said. “We will have Trump for four years; “The next three months will not be the whole story.”