India appears to be building its case to strike Pakistan

Since the horrific terrorist attack in Kashmir last week, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke on the phone with more than ten world leaders. Officials said diplomats of 100 missions in the capital of India had submitted the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to surround the surroundings.

But the effort is not much about helping to get rid of the dangerous confrontation with India with Pakistan, which is accused by “ties” of the attack. Instead, according to four diplomatic officials familiar with discussions, New Delhi appears to adopt a issue of military action against its neighbor and its air. Without naming Pakistan, Mr. Modi promised in a speech on Thursday a severe punishment and a safe havens for terrorism.

Five days after Terrorist attackThe gunmen killed 26 civilians, India did not officially recognize any group that it carried out the massacre, and has publicly provided few evidence to support its claim that Pakistan was behind it. The Pakistani government denied its involvement.

In the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Indian officials described Pakistan’s former support patterns of terrorist groups targeting India. Indian officials said that their investigation was continuing, and they took brief references to the artistic intelligence that links the perpetrators to attack last week on Pakistan, including facial recognition data about the perpetrators who tell them relations with Pakistan.

Analysts and diplomats said that the less peaceful presentations so far indicated that one of the two possibilities said that India needs more time to collect information about the terrorist attack before hitting Pakistan, or at a time of chaos on the world stage-it does not need to justify anyone planning to take it.

The military confrontation between India and Pakistan, both of which are armed with nuclear weapons, are at risk of rapid escalation that may be difficult to contain. But India is not largely restricted to any global pressure to limit its response, and has become faster in bending its muscles in recent years as its diplomatic and economic power grows.

The governments of Iran and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia spoke to both sides, and the Iranian Foreign Minister publicly presented the mediation. The United Nations and the European Union called for self -control and dialogue. But the major powers, including the United States, are distracted from other crises, and analysts say India explains the expressions of support by many countries for their pursuit of justice as a green light for any measures it takes.

Trump administration officials have expressed strong support to fight India against terrorism. President Trump said he was friendly with both India and Pakistan, noting that they were at a long time ago.

But it is not clear how clear Washington participated in the current clash. Three months after his mandate, Mr. Trump has never preceded the name of the ambassador of India, a sign of the place where South Asia occupies his priority list.

Even if the United States or other powers try to include themselves in the conflict, it may have a limited impact. India and Pakistan fought many wars on Kashmir, a region they share, but both are completely demanding, and New Delhi views the conflict as a bilateral issue with Pakistan.

Daniel Marci, an older colleague at the Faculty of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University, said that the first response from Washington was similar to how the Trump administration dealt with the last major scene on Kashmir, in 2019.

This confrontation was pushed by the attack by dozens of Indian security forces. The perpetrators-the fighters of a militant group called Jaish-E-Muhammad-were clear.

At that time, the White House Trump referred to India’s support. The administration has increased its diplomatic pressure to curb only after India got Pakistan, with an air strike across the border.

The damage of the strike was disputed. After that, when Pakistan moved to revenge, it entered a fight and shot down an Indian plane. The pilot was captured.

Mr. Marci said that all the signs this time indicate India’s desire to do a “amazing thing.” Pakistan has pledged to match and overcome any strike from India.

“The Tit-For-Tat course can move quickly, and the Indians and Pakistanis have evaluated assessments of their own ability to manage the escalation,” said Mr. Marci.

Unlike the 2019 terrorist attack, allegations of responsibility for the slaughter of last week were mysterious, with information even for the number of attackers less than concrete. An unknown group called itself in the name of resistance on social media appeared to say it was behind the massacre, according to the implementation of Indian news. Indian officials say, separately, the group is an agent of Lashkar-E-TAIBA, a terrorist organization based in Pakistan.

The lack of clarity may help explain the reason for India significantly indicating Pakistan’s last support for terrorism in Kashmir to present its case for military revenge now. But this approach, before India put its evidence even in private diplomatic discussions, sparked some eyebrows, given the danger of escalation. One of the diplomats asked in particular: Do you want to go to war with a nuclear armed neighbor who depends only on the previous patterns?

Chef Shankar Menon, a former national security adviser in India, said that Mr. Modi had a little option to take military action after responding to strikes against Pakistan in 2019 and in 2016, after another terrorist attack in Kashmir.

But Mr. Menon said that the two nipples between the two opponents are unlikely to go out of control.

He said, “I am not very worried, because both are very happy in a state of hostility.”

Edward Wong and Gina Smileick The reports contributed.