The shortage of the Chinese trade war will reach the shelves in stages

The warnings of the empty stores were in the main headlines where multiple press reports indicate that The executives of the best retail stores in America told President Trump The long trade war will lead to a shortage.

When can this become a reality, and what are the categories of products that will be hit first?

Treasury Secretary Scott Payette recently described a The trade war with China as “not sustainable”.

Indeed, a decrease in manufacturing orders from China, and a decrease in the reservations of Chinese shipping ships and sailing to the United States, outperforms the national supply chain Closer. But when will the supply chain reach the point of no return, when the suspended requests currently need to re -renew the retail supply chain?

Clothes and shoes are the main consumer product area to see. In 2024, imports from China constituted about 37 % of all American clothing imports and about 58 % of all American shoe imports.

“The new high tariff prices are banned as an import ban,” said Steve Lamar, president of the American clothing and shoes Association.

According to AAFA, in 2024, the average tariff for clothes and shoes from China was about 18.5 %, but for many, it is much higher due to additional duties. “When you add 145 %, moreover, you get an average number exceeding 160 %, but in some cases, the actual tariff exceeds 200 %,” Lamar said.

Since this large part of clothes and shoes comes from China, the actual date of definitions did not give companies a great opportunity to transfer sources. “They will soon be translated into a lack of the product with the cancellation of requests or the commodity retained in warehouses so that a commercial deal can be held,” Lamar said.

Companies expect many effects Prices increase the consumer cautionAnd orders of large ticket elements Raised To expect the shock of stickers. Modern American shipments data shows the reducing customs tariffs that companies publish to manage the accurate balance of supply and demand. A decline in Chinese imports was seen in Wall Mart, IKEA and targeted orders, according to Sonar data.

Low visits to the Chinese shipping ship for us

But the risk of a lack of retail depends to a large extent on the time that the “unusual” tariff levels take, and the range of companies Front -loaded stock In the first months of 2025, based on Trump’s threats. A The Chinese government minister recently said“Nowadays, there are absolutely no negotiations on economics and trade between China and the United States”

If customs duties are already decreased and considered more absorbent, production orders may resume and shipments may start again. But if the high tariffs continue, expectations indicate that the American consumer will face a greater shortage, especially since the Chinese suppliers focus on other markets. If this happens, the American supply chain will have to compete for the manufacturing capacity.

Michael Salerno, Vice President of International Banking at FNBO (Omaha First National Bank), whose customer base is small to medium -sized, said the next few months will provide important information about the health of the supply chain.

“We are looking at the port folders in mid -May, June and July,” said Salerno. “We will look at the size of the containers and the time that will sit there. It is too early to know now.”

New data from the sea fly shows a continuous rise in the navigator as a result of stopping the ocean charging orders.

“Many of these empty sailing have been announced with a very limited warning of the code,” said Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Searning.

The rhetoric that occurred for the first time on the Asia-America Western Trading Road is now high on roads from Asia to the ports of the East Coast.

“For the eastern coast of North Asia, there is now a significant rise in the empty sailing of the week that starts on May 5, which is very severe,” Murphy said.

In recent weeks covering late April and early May, transportation companies that have been set for void ships equal to 35 % -42 % of the planned capacity.

Low margin, fast -moving goods disappear first

The supply chain experts say that low stores will strike through the customs tariffs on low -cost imports, and if they tend to inventory, this will be seen much faster.

“The American retail system is based on speed and scale,” said Casey Armstrong, CMO of Shipbob, a platform for the global supply chain. “When this engine, whether-given the customs tariff, customs delay, or resources of resources-this is the least margin and the fastest that disappears first.”

Armstrong warned that the first signs of empty shelves will appear as sensitive price imports dominate the shelf-such as games, games and home commodities for the budget, as well as clothes. “This is the canary in the coal mine of the broken supply chain,” he said.

Armstrong believes that seasonal children’s games and goods, including the elements of the school, will disappear first due to the shortcuts of the pioneering times and the timing of customs tariffs.

Fast costumes and clothes – basics, tenders, inner dress, socks, and some children’s clothes will follow. “There is often a quick rotation on clothes, and thin margins mean a low stock of temporary store,” said Armstrong.

Low -cost home goods and consumer electronics supply will be restricted because although many products in these groups are not “final in China”, their components are often, according to Armstrong. “Also, many products are frequently updated (phones, earphones, etc.). Some Amazon sellers and large boxes stores may have gaps in electronics and cheaper accessories.”

But even with the decrease in the total sailing requests from China, it is not a straight line of a sharp decline in the activities of each retail seller. Home Depot recently increased requests to the United States from Chinese suppliers, according to data from Gistr Genus.

Large retail stocks in large boxes are not the only clear interface that may face inventory pain depending on the intensity and length of the trade war, with Armstrong’s expectation Dropshippers (Companies or individuals who run online stores without stock contract) and those who depend on Exemption of the minimum taxes from China It is also affected from May 2 when this commercial vulnerability is closed.

Jonathan Gold, Vice President of the Supply and Customs Policy Series of the National Union, said retail, according to the latest Tracking the global port Reports, mitigation measures such as the front loading loading led to high import levels, so there was more inventory in the foreground, but he warned that the report also indicated that shipping sizes would decrease dramatically due to canceled or late requests due to definitions.

Gold warned that at least, consumers should be ready for less risk and lower options, and increase prices, especially in young retailers.

“It is possible that the effects will become concrete in the coming months with the start of shipments that are subject to the higher definitions of arrival and access to retail stock,” said Gold. “The uncertainty about the definitions is a challenge for companies, especially for small companies that are currently preparing for critical winter holidays.”