Tarm Trump’s proposal will end a contract of resistance

During President Trump’s first term, Ukraine was concerned that Mr. Trump might recognize Russian control of the Crimea, the Ukrainian Peninsula Moscow in early 2014.

As a candidate, Mr. Trump said he “will take a look”, although the Obama administration and Western allies have refused to include Russia for strategic lands. Even Mr. Trump thought that “the people of the Crimea, which I heard, prefer to be with Russia.”

But Mr. Trump did not follow him and did not double against Moscow. In July 2018, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo issued an official.Crimea advertisement“The pledge to remain a policy of non -recognition” until regional safety is restored in Ukraine. “

Now, in his efforts to negotiate the end of the war between Russia and Ukraine, Mr. Trump is ready to stay away from this declaration – and more than a decade from American policy.

US and European officials said a new peace proposal presented by the Trump administration in London on Wednesday our admission that the Crimea is part of Russia.

Daniel Farid, a former experienced diplomat with Ukraine and Russia, described it as the worst element in Trump’s proposal, which is widely seen as Moscow’s position strongly in several ways.

Mr. Farid said that the matter is that stopping the fighting on the current battle lines without demanding the withdrawal from Russia from the vast region in eastern Ukraine, which it is now occupying. He said that official recognition that Russia’s demand for the Crimea will be much worse.

Mr. Farid said: “It is fully reasonable to accept the fact that for an unspecified period of time parts of Ukraine, it will be in light of the illegal Russian occupation.” “It is completely another thing to officially learn about changing the borders by force.”

This opinion was echoed by the announcement of Mr. Pompeo, who emphasized “the international principle of Perock shared by democratic states: that no country can change other borders by force.”

It is not clear how Mr. Trump was absolutely excited about this conversation from Mr. Pompeo, who was more honest towards Russia than the president who served him. But this view was widely shared in Washington, including Mr. Pompeo at the end, Marco Rubio.

Kasinur, Mr. Rubio CosPonsored a Dece In October 2022, the United States was prevented from recognizing Russian demands for any part of the lands of Ukraine, warning that this “would risk the establishment of a dangerous precedent for other authoritarian regimes, such as the Chinese Communist Party, for tradition.” Mr. Rubio and others have long been afraid that China might be more likely to try to seize Taiwan if he saw the West controlled Ukraine for Russia.

The idea of ​​recognizing the Peninsula of the island of Crimea in Russian is incomplete for Ukraine and its defenders. On Wednesday, the President of Ukraine, Volodimir Zellinski, ruled out the possibility. Saying that he will violate his country’s constitution“There is nothing we are talking about. It is our land, the land of the Ukrainian people.”

But it seems that Mr. Trump later distinguishes between recognition of the Crimea Peninsula by Ukraine, as public opinion will make this step impossible, and the United States. “Nobody asks Zelinski to recognize Crimea as Russian lands,” said Mr. Trump.

Some analysts believe that Mr. Zellinski and European officials may be able to withstand such an American position, whatever they do not agree with him, if they are not pressured for his agreement.

For some, Mr. Trump’s position – which is still part of the proposal that is still changing – may simply recognize the facts on the ground.

Eleven years ago, the Russian forces responded to a pro -Western revolution in Kiev by taking over the Crimea and implementing a referendum there, which was widely convicted as illegal, this monotheism.

Since then, Moscow has only established control. It built its military existence, and the inhabitants were forced to an exhibitor and even created a large bridge linking the Crimea Peninsula to the continental.

Analysts say that the restoration of the peninsula will be very difficult for Ukraine, especially given that it was unable to remove Russia from its eastern lands after more than two years of comprehensive fighting.

Crimea Peninsula is especially high for President Vladimir F. Putin from Russia. The city of Sevastopol in the port of Sevastopol, where the Russian Black Sea fleet is one of the main strategic assets, and the site of epic battles during the Second World War and the Crimean War was in the mid -nineteenth century.

While Mr. Putin suggested that all Ukraine belongs to Russia, he may feel particularly indignant on the Crimea, which was part of the Russian empire for hundreds of years until 1954.

This is when Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev moved his control to Kiev as a gift to the 300th anniversary of Russia’s unification with Ukraine. It was a large symbolic gesture as Russia and Ukraine were colleagues of republics within the Soviet Union, which collapsed in 1991.

Samuel Charab, an analyst and Ukraine specialist at the Rand Foundation, said that Mr. Trump has a busy record in granting recognition of regional demands that have been shared long ago. In 2019, his close occupation, his ally Israel, has long realized the rise of the Golan in Syria. In 2020, Mr. Trump supported the 45 -year -old demand for Western Sahara in exchange for Moroccan diplomatic recognition of Israel.

But Mr. Charab asked about the benefit of providing such a privilege to Russia in the case of the Crimea.

He referred to the previous July 1940 Wales advertisementThe Acting Minister of Foreign Affairs, Somner Wales, said that the United States will never recognize the occupation of Soviet Russia in the summer of the Baltic countries – Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. (Mr. Pompeo cited this statement in the Crimean Declaration of 2018).

“This did not prevent détente, or even the end of negotiations for the cold war,” said Mr. Charab.

Mr. Farid agreed, adding that many in the United States and Europe “mocked the” Wales Declaration as a “joke.” But he indicated that the Akis was in the end again, after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

“Pardon! It turns out it is specific,” he added.