The customs tariffs will not re -manufacture to the United States: Wiping the supply chain

If China will lose some manufacturing as a result President Donald Trump’s tariffThe American manufacturing sector will not be the main beneficiary, according to a new survey of the CNBC supply chain.

The Trump administration says that the re -preparation boom will come, but most companies that responded to the survey tell CNBC that re -supply chains can increase their costs, and instead, the search for low tendency systems will begin all over the world.

More than half of those surveyed (57 %) of the cost said it was the highest reason for saying that they would not reproduce; 21 % of the highest reason said the challenge of finding skilled work. The Trump administration promised Companies tax cuts That re -manufacture, but the survey found that taxes (14 %) are less in companies classifying factors that affect decisions at the manufacturing site.

Despite some conversation High -level ads from the technology sectorIt includes NVIDIA plans for the super computer plant In the United States and Apple’s commitment to investing $ 500 billion In the country, most companies cite the costs. The Trump administration gave the technology sector on Friday from the new customs tariff for China and other global industrialized countries, but the White House is moving forward in achieving national security that targets critical technology for future definitions.

Completely, the majority of the respondents estimate that the price of the new local supply chain construction will be at least a double current cost (18 %), or is likely to be more than twice (47 %). Instead of transferring supply chains to the United States, he said 61 %, it would be effective to transfer supply chains to low countries.

In addition to the definitions, the consumer request and the prices of raw materials, as well as “the inability of the current administration to provide a consistent strategy”, were cited as concerns in the main supply chain.

The majority of the respondents (61 %) who responded to a question about whether they feel that the Trump administration “is bullying in American companies” answered “yes”.

A total of 380 respondents of companies in the supply chain and business institutions were included in the survey, which was conducted from April 14 to 18, with 120 respondents answering each question. The poll was sent to members The American Chamber of Commerce, National Factory Association, National Retamentation Federation, the American Association of Shoe and Shoe, shoe distributors and retail dealers in America, the Board of Directors of the Supply Series, OL USA, Seko Logistics, and its logistics.

Among the respondents who refer to the interest in the re -establishment of the American supply chain, 41 % said that it would take at least three to five years, and 33 % said it would take longer than five years.

Automation will control

If manufacturing returns to the United States, automation will be a major component in the economic model, as 81 % of the respondents said they would use it more than they were on human workers.

“The American labor market is a concern when looking at the movement to the United States,” said Mark Bucks, CEO of the CSCMP Series Group.

In the current environment, workers’ layoffs are an immediate concern, as the respondents were almost equally divided between those who said they are planning the number of heads (47 %) and those who say they do not have current hairdos (53 %). To a more general question about the period in which companies will wait to make employment decisions, ”said the majority is no longer more than nine months – 38 % referred to within two to three months; 23 % during the three months to the next six.

The Federal Reserve Survey was released on Monday An increase in concerns about the demobilization of workers.

At the present time, the most prevalent reaction to the Trump tariff is to cancel requests, according to 89 % of the respondents, and he expected consumers to decline from spending, which 75 % of the respondents said they expect. For products that come under new tariff rates, 61 % of those who participated in the survey said they will raise prices.

“The immediate impact is the cancellation of requests and the risk of low consumer spending is worth noting,” Bucks said.

The respondents expect the survey to be the most affected products as a result of a decline in spending on consumers to be estimated products (44 %), furniture (19 %), and luxury (19 %).

“As of now, we have seen a temporary cancellation or stopping rate of shipping emerging from China, but we see an increasing volume and front loading from other countries in Asia, which stopped tariffs for 90 days.”

Supply series of supply chain

Sixty -three percent of respondents warn of the recession that affects the American economy this year as a result of the Trump tariff policy, as almost half (51 %) expects the consumer to decline in the second quarter.

“Supply chains that support millions of American jobs, Power Us manufacturers, and provide reasonable options for consumers now suffer from early signs of damage due to these devastating tariffs,” said Steve Lamar, CEO of the American clothing and shoes Association. “High prices, job loss, product lack, and bankruptcy will only be some adversity that the American economy is heading while the president follows this unwanted tariff policy.”

Previously I told CNBC that The damage to companies through the economy You may be “irreversible”.

The director of the National Economic Council of Trump, Kevin Haysit, said on Monday that more than 10 countries have made “amazing” commercial offers to the United States and It is “100 %” guaranteed There is no stagnation coming.

Multiple surveys show the pulse of executives Perhaps the recession has already started or Soon to come.

Larry Fink, CEO of Blackrock, said that, based on the talks he had with CEOs throughout the economy, the United States is also the United States as well. Very close to or actually in the recession now.

Small companies and startups say the definitions will be disastrous and put the US jobs at risk.

“The small consumer companies that started with an innovative idea that does not have the capital to invest in building factories,” said Bruce Kaminstein, a member of NY Angels, founder and former CEO of Casabella Cleaning. “They were forced to go abroad due to the lack of production facilities here in American factories in China, they welcomed our business and helped us present our products to the market,” he said.

This time of the year is when retailers ask for their back and holidays, while some importers were back from requests anywhere from 5 % to 30 %, according to the survey, three quarters of the respondents say that requests to return to school and eliminate specifically were not affected. They suggest that companies are preparing for a cautious consumer. There is a greater focus on low -rate goods (67 %), and more promotional elements (21 %). The ambitious luxury (7 %) and luxury (5 %) in the last rank between planning the holiday season orders.

Correction: The cost is the largest opposite wind in transporting supply chains to the United States, according to 57 % of the respondents. The majority of companies said they “will wait to make employment decisions” for a period ranging from three to nine months, instead of planning the number of employees. Half (51 %) of the respondents expect the consumer to decline in the second quarter. A previous version of this article was wrong in these scanning results.