Unemployment expectations jump to the highest level since 2020: The Federal Reserve in New York

the Federal Reserve On Monday, Bank of New York issued its latest survey of consumers ‘expectations, which found that Americans’ expectations have been afraid to the lowest level since the Covid-19 pandemic.

The expectations of the respondents expected that the unemployment rate will be the highest year from now, 4.6 percentage points jumped to 44 % in March-highest reading since April 2020. The increase was wide across age groups, education and income.

The perception of the loss of individual jobs in the next 12 months increased by 1.6 percentage points to 15.7 %, which is the highest level since March 2024. This increase was greater for respondents with the annual family income less than $ 50,000.

The level of confidence of the respondents about the possibility Find a job If they lose their current function, they decrease slightly by 0.1 points to 51.1 %.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell says the definitions that are likely to cause high inflation, can be fixed

Consumers expect that as well Inflation will rise Over the next year, with the poll survey that inflation expectations increased 0.5 percent to 3.6 % on the horizon for one year. The inflation expectations did not change by 3 % on the horizon for three years, and it decreased slightly by 0.1 percent to 2.9 % on the horizon and five years.

It is expected for a year-when searching Prices growth Food increased by 0.1 Celsius to 5.2 %, its highest level since May 2024. It increased by 0.7 percentage points for the cost of medical care to 7.9 %, while rent increased 0.5 degrees Celsius for rent to 7.2 %.

The expectations of the year price decreased at 0.5 degrees Celsius to 3.2 % and 0.2 percentage points for the cost of university education to 6.7 %.

Fears of stagnation, and the induction uncertainty drowns in the feeling of consumer

In addition, the poll found that families find it difficult to obtain credit, as March witnessed a slight increase in those who view their financial situation negatively. Families’ view of the possibility that stocks will rise to their lowest level since June 2022.

The Federal Reserve Report in New York comes against the backdrop of economic uncertainty in its escalation as president Donald Trump He continues to reset the American trade policy, which raises a trade war with major commercial partners such as China, Canada, Mexico and the European Union.

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Economists believe Import taxes It will cause high inflationary pressures, as companies usually pass through the costs of customs tariffs for consumers through high prices – although there is uncertainty about the amount of high prices of consumers and for how long, given the administration’s efforts to negotiate more convenient commercial conditions.

Reuters contributed to this report.