American nuclear talks with Iran advanced forward

the The first meeting Between the United States and Iran, because of its expanded nuclear program on Saturday, it showed a danger of the goal and made an effort to avoid what either side wanted, another war in the Middle East. They will speak again next Saturday, but it is expected that the hard work will escalate, as it is expected that the diverse in both countries and Israel will swing at most.

If the first nuclear deal, which was reached in 2015, was driven by Iran’s desire to get rid of the punishment of itself Economic sanctionsThese conversations have more urgency. Iran, which was beaten by Israel and with its regional agents, has shrunk, still wants economic relief. But he also realizes that the Islamic Republic itself is being threatened and that President Trump, who withdrew from the first deal because he believed that he was very weak, may not deceive Iran in the face of “bombing the likes that they had never seen before.”

The Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khameneini, gave his maximum chance at least to circulate Iranian nuclear aspirations for permanent security.

The talks in Amman also promised some efficiency. The 2015 deal between Iran and six countries – the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council in addition to Germany, were concluded with the European Union plays the role of mediator – and it took two years.

This time the conversations are bilateral, with Europeans but also Russia and China on the margin. Although the United States is still the “Great Satan” of God’s raw signs, it also carries the key to restricting Israel and securing any permanent settlement. While Iran insisted on indirect talks through Oman, and Mr. Trump in direct talks, the two sides were able to resolve this issue, with Mr. Trump’s private envoy, Steve Whitkov, speaks directly to the Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Aragashi, with the end of the meeting.

“This is a good start as it is,” said Ali Fayez, director of the Iran project for the International Crisis Group. “They could have stumbled, but they agreed to meet again, they met together in the end and agreed to the ultimate goal.”

More importantly, Mr. Trump and Mr. Wittouf pointed out that the true summary of the saying is to ensure that Iran can never build a nuclear weapon – despite the cruel demands of Trump officials before talks that Iran is completely dismantling its nuclear program as well as giving up the missile program and supporting its regional societies.

Iran has made it clear that such wide demands will leave the matter without defense and will end the talks before it begins. So reducing the goal of ensuring that Iran is not able to build a nuclear bomb, if the administration holds this, this will sharply enhance the opportunity to succeed.

“The Iranians have come ready for more than just an iceberg, but with the expectation of a logging fracture with the United States, and most importantly, to hear what is real in the United States,” said Valley Nasr, a professor at Johns Hopkins College for International Studies. He said: “If this is not a weapon, they can negotiate the levels of enrichment, inspection, etc.. But Iran does not want to enter into a position in which more sanctions and war cannot be made.” “What Iran wants is very clear – relief for reliable sanctions and adhesion.”

Iran insists that its nuclear program is civil alone, but it is rich in enough uranium near the quality of the weapon to make at least six bombs, according to data from the International Atomic Energy Agency, which implement the Nuclear Decomposition Treaty recorded by Iran.

Sayyid Nasr said that although they were not confident to Mr. Trump, the Iranians believe that it will be more able to ensure the sustainability of the deal that he concludes and faces from the Republicans. He said that the Iranians did not trust former President Biden “to follow up and avoid undermining Congress.”

“We are in the best place where we can be after this meeting,” said Sanam Facille, director of the Middle East and North Africa program in Chatham House. She said that there are positive data from both sides about a plan to move forward, and “a mutual understanding about the required urgency, the opportunity provided and the marks of pragmatism on both sides.”

“Of course, it is waiting for difficult things.”

The dangerous deal will be very complex and technical, and it will take time. You will also need to survive in efforts to undermine the talks by militants in both countries and Israel. Israel, which opposed the 2015 deal, wants to disarm Iran more comprehensive and continue to talk about the need to hit it militarily now, when the regime is weak and its air defense was severely dangerous because of the Israeli air strikes.

Iran has pledged in the past to destroy Israel, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says that he wanted Iran to enrich any uranium at all. Israel, citing the Hamas attack in Gaza, is that Iranian Iranian agents are severely damaged, including Hamas and Hezbollah in Lebanon, and he wants to try to ensure that Iran cannot rebuild them.

But Iran may also be encouraged that Mr. Trump announced talks in the Oval Office next to Mr. Netanyahu, who did not look or seem very happy with it. Sayyid Nasr said that Iran will see a “strong signal from Trump that Netanyahu does not have.”

Hope is for the meeting or the two Qadman to produce a temporary agreement that gives both sides confidence to move forward, with short -term measures on both sides as long as the talks continue. Iran can include approval to freeze uranium enrichment and allow more inspections in exchange for Washington’s suspension of some “maximum pressure” sanctions.

Iran is likely to insist on a step -by -step step that may take several years. Mr. Nasr said, “To help the deal to grow its roots before someone else comes to his position and tried to retract it.” It will also provide the longest security process for Iran.

However, Iran has no reason to extend the same talks. Mr. Fayez said: “Iran’s lever is its nuclear enrichment, and more time will not give them more influence.” Then there is a “time bomb Snapback penalties“

Those sanctions, which were suspended according to the 2015 deal, can be restored if any signature – in this case the Europeans – can be restored for no new deal or significant progress towards one. but This should happen Before October 18, when the ability to “back” end. Officials say that Europeans are exploring whether this deadline can be delayed, but the mechanism for doing so is unclear.

In any case, analysts agree, Iran does not want to blame these talks. If they fail and guarantee war, the regime wants to be able to blame bad Americans and bad faith.

So if it is possible to make a deal, Iran will want guarantees this time that it will be durable and provide commercial participation in a purposeful and long -term way. Iran will want to know “how Trump can ensure protection that other presidents could not take.”

She said that the United States wants to know what Iran guarantees Iran that Iran can provide for Israel’s security and the stability of the largest Middle East.

She said: “The deal should be useful for both parties, but it requires a lot of confidence and accountability along the way that both sides did not simply have.”