Trump’s tariff will work on free trade, but the strike may not be fatal

President Trump announced the “Liberation Day” in which he announced Comprehensive customs tariffs for commercial partners in the United StatesAnother moment of echoes when the advanced Western economy threw walls around itself.

Love Britain’s exit from the European UnionBritain’s fateful vote for nearly nine years to leave the European Union, and Mr. Trump’s tariff hit a hammer kick in the fixed matter. It exits the United States from the global economy completely, as Britain withdrew from a commercial bloc worldwide, in what its supporters considered it a similar editor.

A shock to move Mr. Trump FrequencyLooking at the largest size of the American economy and its position at the global trade point. However, as with Britain’s exit from the European Union, its final impact is unstable: Mr. Trump can reflect himself yet, with his hanging on falling markets or getting rid of one -time deals.

More importantly, economists say that the rise of free trade may be irreversible, and its benefits are so strong that the rest of the world finds a way to maintain order, even without its central player. For all setbacks to the liberalization of trade, grievances expressed in Mr. Trump’s actions, barriers continued to decline.

The European Union, as optimists, notes that it does not collapse after the departure of Britain. These days, the political talk in London is about the ways that Britain can approach its European neighbors. However, this feeling of possibility came until after years of turmoil. Economists expect that a chaos is similar to mitigating the global trading system as a result of Mr. Trump’s theatrical exit.

The wall of S. said. Brasad, a professor of commercial policy at Cornell University: “This will not be the end of free trade, but it is definitely a retreat from unrestricted free trade, the way the world seemed.” “From a logical point of view, this will be a time when the rest of the global teams are together to enhance free trade among them,” he said. “The truth is, every country will be for itself.”

This world will not only be unruly, but also more dangerous. While commercial wars do not necessarily escalate to the shooting wars, historians notice that some conflicts, such as the 1812 war and the opium war in the mid -nineteenth century, were rooted in commercial conflicts. A comprehensive trade war between the United States and China will already inject sparks in a combustible relationship.

Professor Brasad said: “If you are considering the broader conflict between the United States and China, the economic and financial relationship has provided a degree of balance. This balance is eroding now,” said Professor Brasad.

Mr. Trump stopped a kind of Boat diplomacy Britain uses it against China in opium wars. But his Bagilian situation towards some of the closest commercial partners in America, such as Canada and Mexico, may depth the feeling of dislocation and can divide the response of the two countries.

Economists said that the individual position of the United States as the largest engine for global growth, due to its unimportant appetite for manufactured cars in Germany and the collected iPhone devices in China, will make it difficult for countries to redirect their trade relations over the American -less welcoming American market.

This indicates that many countries will end up in an attempt to cut deals with Mr. Trump, as Prime Minister Kiir Starmer said he will do last week, after the United States Brexit with a 10 percent tariff. Others will impose a retaliatory tariff to try to improve the position of bargaining with the United States.

China quickly struck Friday, Beeminic definitions compared to 34 percentAfter speculation that it may coordinate its response with its Japan and South Korea neighbors. Indeed, the European Union is the countries that find themselves at the price of the American market by not making cheap exports in its market.

“A lot depends on how Europe decides to play this,” said Simon Johnson, a professor at the Salon College of Management at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a former Economist in the International Monetary Fund. “Europeans can approach China and pick up a lot of stagnation from Vietnam.”

“This would create a large non -American business.” “But I do not think that the Europeans will be comfortable with all those Chinese exports flowing to Europe. Where do these excess exports go?”

Europe is likely to be resistance to absorb more Chinese imports Facing China leaders with a thorny challenge. They can either adopt measures to make China less dependent on exports by making the demand among their residents, which they tried to do in the past with mixed results. Or they can search for a deal with Mr. Trump, something they failed to do during his first term, despite the signing of an initial agreement.

Despite all criticism of Mr. Trump’s methods, economists say it responds to a real problem: China as an excessive competitive trade force, which strongly supports its companies. The hollow of American manufacturing, from Mr. Trump’s point of view; It is claimed that customs duties will return them.

When he took office, President Barack Obama asked whether one of his democratic ancestors, Bill Clinton, had given a lot to allow China to join the World Trade Organization. Mr. Obama imposed a 35 percent tariff on China from 2009 to 2012, to throw tires on the American market. After Mr. Trump left his post in 2021, President Joseph R. left. Biden Junior is the tariff of China in place.

Professor Johnson said: “The global trading system was under pressure for a while, and this pressure has already symbolizes the appearance of China,” said Professor Johnson. “It was more harmful and destructive than Japan.”

In 2024, Professor Johnson, along with Darwin Asimoglu from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and James A. Robinson of the University of Chicago, the Nobel Memorial Prize in the economy to discuss the institutions of the colonial era that made some countries richer than others with their development. One of the common factors, whether in Asia or Africa: “All countries that survived poverty have done this through trade,” he said.

For this reason, the world is unlikely to be drifted into a state of tendons, as the two countries are trying to produce everything they need within their borders. The nature of the global supply chains-from semiconductors in Taiwan to the suppliers of automatic tools in Canada-makes such economic isolation impossible, however.

Economists said the countries that will face the largest number of pain of the trade war are low -income sources of commodity commodities, which have little influence to respond to Mr. Trump. Many of them are in Africa, including Nigeria, which has been targeted by 14 percent, both Kenya and Ghana, both of whom reached 10 percent.

The World Trade Organization has estimated that the measures of Mr. Trump, in addition to the previously announced tariffs, would reduce the size of the World Trade Trade 1 percent in 2025, a declining review of about four percentage points from its previous forecast. The widespread trade war will cause more damage.

However, some optimists predicted that Mr. Trump’s tariff would accelerate the merging of other countries, either through bilateral commercial deals or regional trade agreements. They mentioned that the United States is the only country that withdrew from Pacific partnershipThat was Later on re -negotiation Without this, falsifying a trade agreement between other major economies that border the Pacific.

Even Britain’s exit from the European Union, although it depends on the same grievances about the globalization of Mr. Trump Maga movement, was not as framed as a protectionist project. Brexiteers has argued that, as soon as it is liberated from the European Union restrictions, the British can negotiate better trade deals on their own. Last week, they were returning to Britain’s exit from the European Union as the reason that Britain’s tariff was 10 percent was half of the European Union.

“You will see more countries around the world with free trade deals around the United States,” said Jasson Foreman, a professor of economic policy at Harvard Kennedy School, who was the head of the Economic Advisers Chamber during the Obama administration. He said: “I see it as a turning point for the United States in the center of the global trading system, but not how the world thinks about free trade.”