Trump’s tariff: “There will be blood”, JPMorgan warns of economic anxiety, and 60 % of the possibilities of global recession

There is a growing economic discomfort in Wall Street in response to Donald Trump’s recent implementation of the widely ranged definitions, prompting the leading banks to issue warnings of potential stagnation. According to a report issued by Bloomberg, the great economists of JPMorgan Bruce Kemman estimated 60 % of the global recession in 2025, a significant increase in the previous 40 % expectations.

Kamman emphasized the potential amplification of the effects of customs tariffs through reprisal measures, the low morale of American work, and the disturbances in the supply chain, as shown in its publication entitled “There will be blood.”

International mediation companies have issued warnings about the possible negative repercussions on both Indian economies and the United States due to the recent high tariff. These procedures also sparked sharp reactions on a global scale.

Goldman Sachs also expressed similar concerns, raising the possibility of recession from 20 % to 35 % during the next year. In addition, the company reviewed its drop in the GDP of 2025 to only 1 % growth and expects an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.5 %. “The escalation of the possibility of recession reflects a remarkable decrease in both consumer confidence and business in economic expectations during the past month,” the Goldman report said.

Ask special wealth raised concerns about the potential impact of definitions on the American economy, and warned of the increasing economic uncertainty that may lead to stagnation. The company affirmed the risk of revenge and retreat, indicating the rise in commercial barriers in front of levels that have not been seen since the 1,800s.

Likewise, UBS, a brokerage company, suggested that there is a 50 % chance of definitions that are reduced by the end of the year. However, they highlighted the harmful effects in the short term on the American economy, with an expected slowdown in growth to about 1 % by 2025. Even if the definitions decrease in the end, UBS expects an economic slowdown in the short term due to the initial shock and uncertainty.

In a more pessimistic scenario where definitions or escalation continues, UBS expects the possibility of the United States and significant discounts in interest rates by the Federal Reserve. These warnings emphasize the possible negative repercussions of the ongoing trade tensions on the American economy.

Deloitte noticed that textiles and clothes in India, which were valued at more than $ 8 billion in 2024, were at risk of great influence. Since these products that work on narrow profit margins are very sensitive to prices, a 10-20 percent increase in tariffs can make Indian textiles less competing compared to countries that have more useful commercial agreements.

On the other hand, Jefferies provided a more optimistic look by highlighting that the customs tariffs do not directly affect the major Indian export sectors such as information technology services, pharmaceutical preparations and cars. The company also described a 27 percent tariff as “reasonable” when looking at the wider global context.