13 Habits of Highly Effective Risk Takers

I played poker professionally before I wrote about politics or built an election model. What really fascinates me about gambling is the mindset that drives this behavior, a way of thinking that unites a group I call “The River.”

The River is a sprawling ecosystem of like-minded people that includes everyone from low-stakes poker pros to cryptocurrency kings and venture capital billionaires. It is a way of thinking – analytical, abstract, competitive, contrarian – and a way of life. Most “river people” are not rich and powerful, but the rich and powerful are disproportionately likely to be river people.

I call the following “The 13 Habits of Highly Effective Risk Takers.” Quantitative river risk takers and those who take physical risks — astronauts, deep-sea explorers, NFL players — have these traits in common. Based on my research, I believe there is something inherent in people who seek out risk and take it successfully. How much do you share with them?

Successful risk takers are calm under pressure

Being calm when others lose theirs is a rare quality, and one that is essential for a winning gambler. No matter how well you perform in everyday situations, you will never reach the top of your career if you choke under pressure.

They have courage

In poker and sports betting, the vast majority of players lose money. Being at the top requires a delicate balance. Overconfidence can be fatal in gambling, but playing poker against the best is not for the faint of heart.

They have strategic empathy

They put themselves in their opponent’s shoes, but don’t mistake this for a kind of sensitive sympathy. In psychological studies, there is a negative relationship between systematic thinking—which Revere residents are good at—and empathic behavior. Strategic empathy comes up a lot in poker, which is a sports game and a people game.

They are process oriented, not results oriented

They are playing the long game. “Don’t focus on results” is a motto ingrained in many poker players. It is true that results are what matter in the long term, but the good thing about the river is that our compensation is ultimately based on objective measures.

They take the shots

They clearly understand the risks they are taking, and they are comfortable with failure. In one of the episodes of the American version of The officeimbecile president Michael Scott misquotes hockey player Wayne Gretzky: “You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.” There is something to be said about this.

They have a raise or fold position

They hate mediocrity, and know when to quit. The great sin in poker is that most players hold too much. There are three basic actions in poker: call, fold, and raise. People hit the call button a lot. They call because they want to gamble, but although players call when they should fold, they also call when they should raise.

They are ready

They make good intuitive decisions because they are well trained, not because they “do it.” What upset private equity investor and explorer Victor Vescovo Top Gun: Maverick Tom Cruise was adamant about the need to improvise your way out of a difficult situation: “The best military operations are the ones that are very boring, where things go exactly according to plan. “No one is ever in any danger,” he said. “You want to minimize risk. while Top Gun He looked great on film, that’s not how you try to kill that goal.

They have great attention to detail

They understand that attention is a scarce resource. In poker, one of the unusual features of the game is that most of the time, you don’t have anything to do, exactly – there’s a lot of waiting. You need to carefully calibrate your mental bandwidth, conserving energy but ready to spring into action.

They are adaptable

They are good generalists, taking advantage of new opportunities and responding to new threats. I call this personality type the fox. Think of what the Greek poet Archilochus said: “The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one great thing.” Foxes look for opportunities, and are concerned about complacency and extreme restriction. This is one habit with some exceptions. In particular, startup founders need to focus on one big thing and be prepared to see it out for a decade or more.

They are good estimators

They are Bayesians, comfortable measuring their intuition and working with incomplete information. Does the difference between 90 percent and 93 percent really matter?

They’re trying to stand out, and they don’t fit in

Independence of mind and purpose are the hallmarks of a high achiever.

They are knowingly contradictory

They have theories about why and when conventional wisdom is wrong. There is a difference between independence and contradiction. If you choose vanilla and you choose chocolate because you like chocolate more, you are independent. If you choose chocolate because I choose vanilla, you are contradictory. River people can be accused of being contradictory when they are truly independent. If you do the traditional thing 99% of the time, and you do it 85% of the time, you’ll look rebellious in comparison, but in reality you’ll still be going with the flow.

They are not driven by money

They’re not ascetics, but poker players are special for two reasons. First, they are so competitive that money is often a way to keep score; Secondly, gambling with such high risks requires a certain amount of insensitivity to them.

Adapted from On the Edge: The Art of Risking It All, By Nate Silver.